You deal in defined encapsulated moves, with defined time structures. Your method doesn't seem to care whether we are in a vertical spike or are meandering sideways. You are using a technicians model without thought to external noise. I on the other hand have no such defined structure. I see a multi year vertical move that is one for the record books. I put that into account in determining the eventual reversal. In a psychological sense any long moves will elevate us emotionally on the next eventual drop. In fact this one is very stretched both fundamentally and technically. We have not had a sizeable correction for a very long time. no fear. The next 2 quarterly projections are double digit, each. We would need to see a dramatic economic change to accomplish that in such a short period. In that sense it is almost a given we have a bear market soon.
Your method might very well prove to be a winning formula, but there are always more ways than one to come to the same conclusion.
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