gdl - I appreciate your evaluation. I agree that we will eventually get a good correction, but I believe the SPX will avoid the Bear market for a while. So far during this Bull market, the SPX Monthly Phase 2 has had 5 Weekly cycles, the average is 4.93 and 30 Daily cycles, the average is 24.86, so the SPX is due for a Monthly Phase 1.
However, in a previous post today I pointed out that the next Weekly Phase 1 projected low is currently at 1555.44 and the Monthly UTL is at 1567.78, so that is a 12.34 point gap below the Monthly UTL, if the Weekly high continues to go up the projected low will go up as well. So it doesn't look very promising for a Monthly Phase 1 to start during the next Weekly Phase 1 which is currently projected to start around September 20th, then the next Weekly Phase 2 could take the SPX into November and the next possible opportunity for a Monthly Phase 1 would be January.
What would it take for a Bear market to start in August? Right now the SPX would have to drop below 1567 (115 points) by July 31st and open below that on August 1st and then drop to below 1488 (another 79 points) and remain below that level until the end of August to get a SPX Monthly EMA 3/8 Bear crossing confirmed. This scenario is not likely. Of course if an event of the magnitude of 9/11 occurred, that would be a different story.
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