Northram,I share the same sentiment as gdl regarding the bull/bear time frames. Look at the weekly chart below and the bull started at the 2009 low and we (you and me) differ on the correction mid way through this wave pattern as to what we call it. I recognize it as a large correction of the larger bull wave.
I look at data that is comparable. The moves from 1995 reflect the dramatic change from an economy based on cash to one of debt. Credit cards took off in 1982 and so did all the other instruments of credit.
There really is no historic data for bull and bear averages since the game was changed in the last 30 years. I should not have stated there was a 12 month pattern since clearly there is no pattern other than a shorter bear run than bull.
My premise is that the longer the secular bull runs, the longer and steeper the cyclical bear gets. A move off of SPX 800 to today is unprecedented. The notion that we continue to have a 5/6 month bear move off the 2009 lows is not logical. Larger instability should develop as we go higher until a secular bear returns.
The notion of secular and cyclical will also get blurred as we move forward. We are approaching a period of time that will resemble the 70's on steroids. The only notion I am confident about is the fact that we will have a dramatic purging of the market where debt finally gets restructured.
I do apologize when I made the phase remarks. The recent events are so different from the past that any comparisons on time phase should be thrown out.
I have followed the notion of a contracting Fibonacci spiral. In that context a 20 percent drop in a one year period fits. This theory concludes with an "event horizon" so to speak.
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