Snoot - That's all well and good. I understand that my definition of a Bear market differs from many. Most agree that a Bear market is a decline of at least 20% over a 2 month period. The 2010 Bear market was 17% and lasted 3 months. So to me I would say that is close enough and the SPX Monthly EMA 3/8 has been pretty consistent in confirming them. The 2011 Bear market, was 21.58% and lasted 5 months, so that is within the Wall Street excepted definition.
I understand you guy's have to try and fit your market forecasts into some kind of E-Wave format. But by looking at your chart, I see 2 small Bears, each came from a Bull market that did not produce a new SPX record high.
Since this Bull market has produced a SPX record high, I believe you will see the next Bear market will take back the 60% gain that this Bull has produced since Oct 2011.
I believe in the next 2 to 6 months we will see a good correction of possibly up to 20%, but I believe it will not get a confirmed Bear market. It will likely be a one or two month Monthly Phase 1 correction and then the Bull market resumes for another few months, possibly taking the SPX to the 1800 and beyond level.
So we will have to see how the cycles unfold over time and eventually these things will become more clear.
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