imo in this case Dr KS's observation is highly relevant. The drain of available physical supply seems to be well, and widely documented.
Why do I "hold my bets" and/or often sound so wishy-washy about where the PMs are going in the near to intermediate term ?
It is pretty simple actually, as to me it is not about predicting the metals based either on their fundamentals or on past performance.
It is rather about predicting what is most needed by and most profitable to the manipulating bullion banks, and also (which can conflict with and/or determine the first) what is most needed by and directed by their (consenting) masters (i.e. the sovereigns, as in the US via the market intervention/stabilization committee). I tend to believe that there is a tension between the objectives of the masters and the operatives that is cooperatively resolved so the the consenting masters (who look the other way regarding regulations, etc.) make sure that there is room for the operatives to profit.
Now, most of these operatives are highly diversified and have been the major beneficiaries of QE, reaping massive windfall profits from QE. They have no incentive to end their game, but every incentive to make sure it continues and remains exclusive to the few participants (if not fewer).
It is for example in that context that I see the rise in oil on the pretext of MidEast (Eqypt currently) uncertainty. High oil slows the US economy (and elsewhere) and high enough above $100 it stalls it. That leads to continued QE. etc, etc
For the PMs, for now the last thing the controlling masters want is anything that shakes the confidence game of the fiat system. The QE pump is barely able to keep the tire inflated but can't get the pressure up, but it is one of the few options available to avoid a flat tire. So whatever shakes confidence in the fiat is a target, and that includes PM valuations.
Will it all come down like a house of cards on a shaken table? Sure. Eventually. But calling the when is a mater of calling what shakes the table and when.
JMO
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