Few Elliottians realized that: “R. N. Elliott's analysis of the mathematical properties of waves and patterns eventually led him to conclude that "The Fibonacci Summation Series is the basis of The Wave Principle.”. [ Fibonacci relationships http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle ] The Elliott wave theory is a branch of pattern recognition, a generic heuristic search process. When a search pattern is projected (proposed), it extrapolates the possible terminal points according to: (1) terminal point of the pattern, such as the apex of a diagonal (2) Fibonacci points. However, Fibonacci projection usually comes out multiple points. So, to zoom in the target, the hunting efforts needs to work with other TA together. such as P&F, cycle, trend line ... etc.
In this particular case 1779 is the equal distance for the wave set [ (666.79->1370.58), 1074.77, 1.000] 1778.56 = 1074.77 + 1.000 * ( 1370.58 – 666.79). refer to this chart Now, consider that 0.786 .. 1.236 could be the outcome too.
Using the same method, Friday’s high (1680.19 on 07/12) can be realized by wave set [ (1266.74->1474.51), 1343.35, 1.618], thus: 1679.52 = 1343.35 + 1.618 * (1474.51 – 1266.74)
I believe 1779 will be a stretch until we get a Monthly correction, then possibly sometime next year. But the cycles have been going to extreme highs, so who knows....
Now that fits with my non-technical assumption. Such a long standing big move over the past 4 years has a better than 50 percent chance of ending the last wave up in a rather tight steep channel. That doesn't mean its "THE" top, but a top. My target top is getting close. My target range has always been 1720 - 1780. In the last month it is becoming more doable. We all know this years move hasn't seen a significant drop. It also makes sense that the top should be established before winter sets in.
The question is how big a drop and for how long. A typical corrective (cyclical bear phase) should take 13 months on average. There is no sign that this top will be the final top followed by a vicious drop. The odds favor a 20 percent drop followed by another big rally. We need to see the yield curve inverted before any major bear trend. I also read Armstrong's report and his target prices and dates seem in the ball park to me.
Tony is full of chit. First he calls for 1680-1699 and now a week later he changes the target again to 1779 or 1900. Also, missing a low taget by 20-25 points is pretty sad.
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