CHARTS_CCI_SYSTEM

[gdl]

Now that fits with my non-technical assumption. Such a long standing big move over the past 4 years has a better than 50 percent chance of ending the last wave up in a rather tight steep channel. That doesn't mean its "THE" top, but a top. My target top is getting close. My target range has always been 1720 - 1780. In the last month it is becoming more doable. We all know this years move hasn't seen a significant drop. It also makes sense that the top should be established before winter sets in.

The question is how big a drop and for how long. A typical corrective (cyclical bear phase) should take 13 months on average.
There is no sign that this top will be the final top followed by a vicious drop. The odds favor a 20 percent drop followed by another big rally. We need to see the yield curve inverted before any major bear trend. I also read Armstrong's report and his target prices and dates seem in the ball park to me.