megazoo...
Thanks for the kind words.
I am not a member of the Republican party and vote on the person, not the party. I will admit that it has been a number of years since I voted for other than a republican in an election for the house, senate or presidency, but that had more to do with the candidates stated beliefs than it did the party. I do prefer conservative views on many issues, for sure.
I believe (and pray) that the war will come to a good conclusion soon, with little further loss of life except perhaps for Saddam and his merry band of true believers. That will be a well deserved plus for Bush when election time comes around, but the election is still a very long time off into the future and too many things can (and will) happen to make any predictions about it now.
As you noted, the economy will be one factor and I expect the economy will be worse at that time that most now believe, but I also think that there is nothing that Bush or anybody else can do about it - we are suffering the natural consequences of the bubble economy. Bush did not in any way start or contribute to this recession, and those who try to pin it on him are liars - period. The bubble came under clinton and burst under clinton and those two things are the cause of what we are now suffering.
But even clinton, as much as I disliked him as president, was not to blame for the bubble or its aftermath. The president has very little power that affects the economy, and even congress (which does carry what power there is) does not have much. The man whose job it is to watch over the economy is the Fed Chairman and it is into his lap that any blame lies. He recognized the bubble as it was forming, knew what was likely to happen, but instead of doing what needed to be done he chose to accept all the public accolades for being the "father of the New Era."
Unfortunately, most of the electorate is ignorant of the economics of all of this, and how much Bush is hurt by the economy will depend on how well he is able to get the public to understand all of this. The history of presidential elections during bad economic times does not bode well for him, but there is no way to know how it will play out, especially since a lot of other things could happen that would influence the vote also.
One thing in Bush's favor is that the democrats have to be very careful who they choose as an opponent - most americans shudder to think of the US being led by algore, tom daschle or nancy pilosi types in a post 09/11 world. The world has changed, but so far the democrats have not.
Just my views, though.
mlsoft
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
