Replies to post #162592 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

MON provided rough EPS guidance for FY2014 (ending 8/31/14) when it released FY3Q13 results last week:

http://monsanto.mediaroom.com/2013-06-26-With-Third-Quarter-Results-Monsanto-Reaffirms-Ongoing-Earnings-Outlook-Of-Greater-Than-20-Percent-Growth-In-Fiscal-Year-2013-And-Mid-Teens-Growth-For-Fiscal-Year-2014

The company reaffirmed 2013 earnings per share guidance in the range of $4.50 to $4.55 on an ongoing [i.e. non-GAAP] basis, with mid-teens ongoing earnings growth anticipated for fiscal year 2014.

This is the first time MON has ever given EPS guidance for a non-current fiscal year, which is a bullish sign, IMO. Applying a 15% increase to the $4.50-4.55 EPS range for FY2013, the guidance for FY2014 is about $5.20. At the current share price, the P/E based on FY2014 EPS is thus about 19x.

[DewDiligence]

My Top Picks for Long-Term Buy & Hold (updated)

Since the previous version of this list three weeks ago, I’ve added two names
—ENTA and MRK—and kept all 15 existing names (adding shares to some
of them (e.g. DE, HES, and IBM). So, there are now 17 names on the list.

Below are sample posts for each name. Even for the pre-existing names, I’ve
updated several of these posts, so they’re worth another look.

CLF and VALE have been terrible performers, but I’m holding them on the
thesis that the market’s bearishness toward commodity plays (and iron ore
in particular) is overdone. I think both stocks are likely close to bottoming.

 
 Biotech/healthcare 
 ABT      #msg-87053716  #msg-87053892  #msg-50473238 
 ENTA     #msg-89280314  #msg-89666861  #msg-89280030 
 MNTA     #msg-89519908  #msg-89308088  #msg-70212854 
 MRK      #msg-88261837  #msg-88122327  #msg-88559624 
 PFE      #msg-81127453  #msg-89518539  #msg-87338855 
 XOMA     #msg-89001644  #msg-85514239  #msg-83090054 
  
 Natural resources 
 CLF      #msg-87260717  #msg-88988001  #msg-86532061 
 HES      #msg-88002724  #msg-87217984  #msg-89320207 
 PCL      #msg-83600271  #msg-83602427  #msg-47898395 
 RDS-A/B  #msg-84459871  #msg-86046040  #msg-84124821 
 VALE     #msg-88894147  #msg-89652092  #msg-61404125 
  
 Agriculture and food  
 DE       #msg-60344244  #msg-60344244  #msg-61382266 
 MDLZ     #msg-87046646  #msg-84989239  #msg-80352710 
 MON      #msg-86130866  #msg-89626669  #msg-86643559 
 ZTS      #msg-84129296  #msg-84068724  #msg-84067676 
  
 Technology 
 IBM      #msg-87460673  #msg-87045399  #msg-67607838 
 MMM      #msg-84409832  #msg-81071714  #msg-60356285 

Feedback welcome.