Replies to post #92972 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[D2]

OT:

Zeev & thread,

Got this from Yahoo Entertainment News.....enjoy.....[vbg].

TIME-TRAVELER' BUSTED FOR INSIDER TRADING
Wednesday March 19, 2003

By CHAD KULTGEN

NEW YORK -- Federal investigators have arrested an enigmatic Wall Street wiz on insider-trading charges -- and incredibly, he claims to be a time-traveler from the year 2256!

Sources at the Security and Exchange Commission confirm that 44-year-old Andrew Carlssin offered the bizarre explanation for his uncanny success in the stock market after being led off in handcuffs on January 28.

"We don't believe this guy's story -- he's either a lunatic or a pathological liar," says an SEC insider.

"But the fact is, with an initial investment of only $800, in two weeks' time he had a portfolio valued at over $350 million. Every trade he made capitalized on unexpected business developments, which simply can't be pure luck.

"The only way he could pull it off is with illegal inside information. He's going to sit in a jail cell on Rikers Island until he agrees to give up his sources."

The past year of nose-diving stock prices has left most investors crying in their beer. So when Carlssin made a flurry of 126 high-risk trades and came out the winner every time, it raised the eyebrows of Wall Street watchdogs.

"If a company's stock rose due to a merger or technological breakthrough that was supposed to be secret, Mr. Carlssin somehow knew about it in advance," says the SEC source close to the hush-hush, ongoing investigation.

When investigators hauled Carlssin in for questioning, they got more than they bargained for: A mind-boggling four-hour confession.

Carlssin declared that he had traveled back in time from over 200 years in the future, when it is common knowledge that our era experienced one of the worst stock plunges in history. Yet anyone armed with knowledge of the handful of stocks destined to go through the roof could make a fortune.

"It was just too tempting to resist," Carlssin allegedly said in his videotaped confession. "I had planned to make it look natural, you know, lose a little here and there so it doesn't look too perfect. But I just got caught in the moment."

In a bid for leniency, Carlssin has reportedly offered to divulge "historical facts" such as the whereabouts of Osama Bin Laden and a cure for AIDS.

All he wants is to be allowed to return to the future in his "time craft."

However, he refuses to reveal the location of the machine or discuss how it works, supposedly out of fear the technology could "fall into the wrong hands."

Officials are quite confident the "time-traveler's" claims are bogus. Yet the SEC source admits, "No one can find any record of any Andrew Carlssin existing anywhere before December 2002."

Weekly World News will continue to follow this story as it unfolds. Keep watching for further developments.

[Chris McConnel]

Zeev,

do you watch the price of metals, like copper and tin?

Seeing many folks commenting on copper today, like Nationalist http://home.ddc.net/ygg/inv/weekly.htm. He's calling it Dr. Copper -G-.

And from RealMoney, an interesting article about them and what they are saying right now.

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Futures Shock
Lead Zeppelin Signals Economy on Wrong Stairway
By Howard Simons
Special to TheStreet.com

04/01/2003 03:03 PM EST
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/options/futuresshocktsc/10077403.html

Yes, I know the band's name was "Led Zeppelin," so save the email. We're talking real lead, the beloved plumbum of Rome from whence the elemental symbol Pb is derived.

Considering the war in Iraq, let's revisit the base metal complex. After all, wars consume vast quantities of metals. Artillery casings are made with brass, an alloy of copper and zinc. The shaped charges of armor-piercing rounds have copper cores. Aircraft have aluminum skins. Steel is toughened and made more corrosion-resistant with nickel and zinc. So, pun intended completely, the metals business must be booming, no?

No.

The last time I wrote on this subject, in December 2002, I concluded that the base metals markets were sending out mixed signals on the economy.

The good news is that ambiguity has dissipated. The bad news is that metals prices are pointing lower. All six of the base metals traded on the London Metals Exchange have fallen in price since Jan. 31. Only nickel, always the most volatile base metal, and tin even attempted a rally during the last two months.


The Greenback Connection

The LME metals are quoted in U.S. dollars, and like all tangible assets, tend to have an inverse relationship therewith. If each dollar is worth less, then each metric ton of copper or aluminum should rise in dollar price. Moreover, a weaker dollar has tended to stimulate U.S. manufacturing as exports rise.

This relationship is failing at the moment. The dollar has weakened under the Federal Reserve's shock and awe campaign of monetary creation and lower interest rates and under the weight of lower expected returns on U.S. assets. A weaker dollar lowers the effective cost of metals for nondollar buyers, and that should stimulate demand in Europe, Asia and elsewhere.

Alas, that isn't happening. Let's take the particular case of copper, a good barometer for overall manufacturing and construction activity. Copper is unexpectedly weak relative to the dollar at the moment; if it were on trend for its 1991-2003 relationship, it would be at $1,805 per metric ton right now instead of its present $1,607.

The weaker-than-expected price of copper bodes poorly for manufacturing demand in the near term, regardless of the duration of the war. It is an unmistakable sign of weak capital spending and construction plans, both globally and in the U.S.


A Tin Ear

The topics of military logistics have been very much in the news, as they should be. Quartermasters are the unsung heroes of every war: No less of an authority than Napoleon said "an army travels on its stomach." The tin can was invented in France in the 1790s, and despite an entire epoch of human history being designated the Bronze Age in honor of the copper-tin alloy, tin and cans have been linked ever since.

But even in this age of plastic-wrapped MREs, tin remains an outstanding economic indicator. Over the past five years, a period chosen to avoid the immediate aftermath of the Asian financial crisis on Malaysia, a leading tin producer, tin prices have led several major moves in U.S. equities. They peaked shortly before the bear market began in March 2000, then entered a precipitous waterfall decline in 2001 once the $4,920 per metric ton level was broken.

This key support level has been rejected on the approach several times so far this year, with prices never exceeding $4,820. During the war relief rally two weeks ago, tin gapped lower. Such a move is hardly consistent with expectations of increased demand.


Interest in Zinc

The close relationship between zinc prices and 10-year note yields was pointed out here last December. The conclusion was that interest rates would rise along with credit demands, which in turn would rise with increased activity in manufacturing. Zinc, used to galvanize steel and make brass, reflects manufacturing demand closely, and has the benefit of having almost no speculative content whatsoever.

One of my mental checklist questions when I see an extreme price move is to ask "is the market accepting or rejecting this price?" Zinc's price peaked along with the stock market in early 2000 and spent the entirety of 2001 falling to levels from which it has yet to recover. The conclusion is that if the market has not rejected the lower price -- even the smallest rally attempts have fizzled -- then there is no recovery in demand on the horizon.


A Dreary Conclusion

Whatever happened to the New Economy, wherein we'd all be conducting frictional electronic commerce and living happily ever after? Maybe we will live to see it. If I remember correctly, it all looked neat in the ads. For now, however, we still have to get by on making and moving things that cannot be transformed into bytes.

Until this reality is repealed, financial markets are unlikely to disconnect from the real economy while memories of the previous experience are still fresh. That means we are going to have to wait for an upturn in manufacturing. And if this little tour through the base metals complex is any indication, we're just going to have to wait.

Howard L. Simons is a special academic adviser at Nasdaq Liffe Markets, a professor of finance at the Illinois Institute of Technology, a trading consultant and the author of The Dynamic Option Selection System. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities. The views expressed in this article are those of Howard Simons and not necessarily those of NQLX. As a matter of policy, NQLX disclaims the private publication of materials by its employees. While Simons cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send your feedback to Howard Simons.

[bestbuy]

“TURNIP TRADER' BUSTED FOR INSIDER TRADING
TUESDAY APRIL 1, 2003
By RW
NEW YORK -- Federal investigators have arrested a popular wiz on insight-trading and conspiracy charges -- and incredibly, he claims to be an inventor with a doctoral degree. Sources at the Security and Exchange Commission confirm that retired ZH offered the bizarre explanation for his uncanny success in the stock market after being led off in handcuffs on April 1.

Additional arrests are anticipated, as a large horde of stock market traders follow the writings of ZH, several ago years on *P, then on SI, and eventually migrating with him to IH, moving his troops as federal investigators get closer to ZH and his co-conspirators. "We don't believe this guy's story -- he's either a lunatic or a pathological liar," says an SEC insider.

"But the fact is, with an initial very small investment, in several years' time he had a portfolio valued at more than the total treasury of the US, however ZH refused to disclose his net worth, as he never discusses his finances. Every trade he made capitalized on stock price gyrations in hourly, daily and other time durations. No other day traders and market timers come even close to match his market gains. His tradings simply can't be pure luck.

"The only way he could pull it off is with divine information. He's going to sit in a jail cell on Rikers Island until he agrees to give up his sources."

The past year of nose-diving stock prices has left most investors crying in their beer. So when EH makes his daily flurries of high-risk trades and came out the winner, it raised the eyebrows of Wall Street watchdogs.

When investigators hauled ZH in for questioning, they got more than they bargained for: A mind boggling four-hour confession.

ZH declared that he had traveled back in time when he met the TURNIPS which keep track of stock prices gyrations, making consistent profit even when it is common knowledge that our era experienced one of the worst stock plunges in history. Yet anyone armed with knowledge of the future price actions could make a fortune, even when never making short sales.

"It was just too tempting to resist," ZH allegedly said in his videotaped confession. "I had planned to make it look natural, you know, lose a little here and there so it doesn't look too perfect. But the turnips are too good."

In a bid for leniency, ZH has reportedly offered to divulge the identity of the "turnips" such as the whereabouts of Osama Bin Laden and a cure for AIDS, as well for SARS.

All he wants is to be allowed to return to his turnips.

However, he refuses to reveal the location of the turnips or discuss how it works, supposedly out of fear the technology could "fall into the wrong hands."

Officials are quite confident the "time-traveler's" claims are bogus. Yet the SEC source admits, "No one can find any record of any ZH existing anywhere before the internet.”

Federal investigators are expected to zero in on his fellow internet stock trading conspirators, and expect more arrests shortly.

RW News will continue to follow this story as it unfolds. Keep watching for further developments.