Replies to post #92087 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Doesnt Add Up]

Actually commercials increased net short position last week. They are now net long the big SP500 contract, but they doubled net shorts in the E-mini contract. The result is a net increase in short position.

[shoreco]

>> Apparently the commercials COTs now are net long the S&P 500 for the first time since mid-2000 <<

It looks to me like they closed out a ton of es and nq mini longs last week and while they are slightly net long the big contracts they are very biased to the short side with the e-mini's...

It looks like they are straddled to me...

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

[hightecheast]

Actually, the SP commercials are net long for the first time since March 24, 2000.

As impressive as moving from 59,823 contracts net short around February 14 to net long by 9,523 contracts now, a secular bullish move is not nearly set-up. Not that it means one will not happen.

The SP commercials will probably continue to build their net long positions (they are almost always early or very early) until we start a significant rally in October or so. Until then, I think we have a lot of downhill left (with an Iraq "victory" rally thrown in somewhere).

I am cautious, but bearish as I have been since Spring, 2000.

Ken Wilson

[mish]

Does anyone have historical data.
I recall reading that the COTs were bullish all the way from Naz 3500 or so until 2400 or so.
I do not recall seeing numbers for the S&P.

If my recollection is correct, they can be wrong for long periods of time.

My take is that they have switched over to the EMINIs for increased flexibility. Getting in and out of the big contract is a lot harder to the best of my knowlege.

[ajtj99]

Often times they get long (or short) a little early in the game, but they are not on the wrong side of things for too long.

[mish]

George or anyone what is a "non-reportable" position?

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

[augieboo]

George, are you looking at the COTs charts on VTO? I ask because they have apparently just stopped including the MINI numbers, which skews their charts badly.

Here are the raw numbers for commercials on SPX:

Note that MINI Contracts are 1/5 of a full contract, so I have divided the Mini numbers by 5.

 
                   Long       Short 
 Full Contracts:   424,781    415,258  
 MINI:              18,665     65,876 
 ====================================== 
 Total:            443,446    481,134 
 http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm 
 

Net SHORT = 37,688






(:

augieboo