Replies to post #92115 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[hightecheast]

<<I recall reading that the COTs were bullish all the way from Naz 3500 or so until 2400 or so. I do not recall seeing numbers for the S&P.>>

The commercials on the SP turned slightly net short bearish on W/E May 19,2000 (COMPQ @ 3990.40) and accelerated to their lowest all-time bearish position on W/E March 9, 2001 (COMPQ @ 2052.78).

They were early and correct ... as usual ... and they are probably very early now in going long ... that is, the commercials on the SP (the commercials on the Mini SP are of no consequence to the BIG SP, in my opinion).

As equity markets continue to slump, I look for the commercials on the SP to get progressively more long until the damn finally breaks (probably in October) and we get a big equity rally.

The commercials are of little or no help day-to-day or week-to-week ... that is extremely important ... the COMMERCIALS ARE TREND ENDERS, not trend leaders.

Ken Wilson

[hightecheast]

<<Getting in and out of the big contract is a lot harder to the best of my knowlege>>

That is not true ... the big SP is easy to get into or out of ... no need to use limit or stop orders to get in or out ... they are very liquid ... even overnight on Globex, very little slippage.

Apparently, there is very little knowledge about futures here, especially the SP ... this whole discussion of Mini vs BIG SP is ludicrous ... THE BIG COMMERCIALS play in the BIG SP world ... period.

The Mini SP is a different market ... especially as far as analyzing the future (or past) movement of the SP itself.

Ken Wilson