Replies to post #118410 on Intel Corp (INTC)

[wbmw]

THAT BEING SAID, the idea that integrated graphics from Intel will significantly eat into the discrete graphics space is, I believe, too pessimistic. I don't know how much of a gamer you are, but even "Haswell" will probably only be competitive with the bottom-of-the-stack Nvidia GPUs, except with worse drivers and will only come on the highest end CPU SKUs. There will continue to be legitimate benefit in buying discrete GPUs in premium notebooks, and I just don't see that changing.

Nice find on the LinkedIn profiles. That's a potentially exclusive view, and I have not seen it mentioned anywhere else. As for your view on nVidia, I'll debate it.

The problem, even with nVidia's existing GPU line, is that it's right up against the wall in terms of power dissipation. The 650M used in the MacBook Pro 15" dissipates a LOT of power, so much so that Apple needed to implement a 95 Whr battery (about double those found in most notebooks, and almost triple the standard Ultrabook battery). And if you read some of the more detailed reviews, the power has resulted in increased noise (>45dB), increased heat (>50C degrees under load), and >77W of power at the system level.

http://www.notebookcheck.net/Review-Apple-MacBook-Pro-15-Retina-2-3-GHz-Mid-2012.78959.0.html
http://www.notebookcheck.net/Review-Apple-MacBook-Pro-13-Retina-2-5-GHz-Late-2012.84584.0.html

Apple's engineers are incredibly good at thermal design, but nVidia seems to be pushing them up to the absolutely limits. So I included the second link to show the MacBook Retine 13", which uses Intel's HD4000 graphics.

Here, battery size drops to 74 Whr (while battery life increased by 38 minutes), acoustics saves 6dB, thermals is 4C cooler, and system is 26W lower power. All of these together are huge, and my guess is that they may still be missing the occasional games that stress the graphics harder.

650M is a 45W GPU, according to Wikipedia, and Apple has added that to a 35W CPU (whereas the 13" model has just the 35W CPU). nVidia takes advantage of the fact that CPU and GPU are usually not simultaneously peaked (hence, the system difference of only 26W), but I bet you that Intel can design a ~55W CPU with better performance than the combo above. They say they are targeting 650M class with Haswell GT3e, and even if they miss it this generation, I'm sure they'll hit it given another Gen8 or Gen9 tock.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Nvidia_graphics_processing_units#GeForce_600M_.286xxM.29_Series

At that point, if Intel is delivering performance up to a 650M, then what's nVidia's market? The 670M is a 75W GPU, and the 680M is 100W+. At that point you are talking Alienware desktop replacement bricks, not something that's mainstream.

I think Intel's strategy goes far enough up the discrete stack to make nVidia pretty much a mobile niche solution, or something that targets desktop cards >$100, where power isn't as important. What that would look like in terms of market compaction, I'd have to imagine would not be good for nVidia longs.

[chipguy]

THAT BEING SAID, the idea that integrated graphics from Intel will significantly eat into the discrete graphics space is, I believe, too pessimistic.

Serious gamers are a small fraction of the graphics market, a low
single digit percentage probably for high end graphics cards.

The vast majority of graphics cards are basic entry level units
that can be replaced by MPU integrated graphics. This has been
happening over the last two years at an increasing rate.

The problem for Nvidia is the high volume entry level card market
is crucial. It drives up GPU manufacturing volumes, reducing
variable costs and per device amortized NRE, and lets them cherry
pick the high tail of the yield bell curve for its high end cards.

As discrete graphic cards gets pushed into a high end niche the
falling down the economy of scale pushes unit cost exponentially
higher which in a nasty little feedback circle increases IGPU
uptake.

That is why Nvidia is paddling like hell to get into non PC markets
like supercomputing, SoCs for handheld devices etc.