Replies to post #29417 on Value Microcaps Motherboard

[nutsaboutgolf2001]

Hweb re SMID

In 2002 and 2003 4th quarter revenues were quite low (4.8 and 3.8 million respectively), and yes those years showed marked seasonality. Much of this year's 4th quarter revenue will be on projects that were delayed (because of late government approvals) from previous quarters (thus the low earnings in second and third quarters). The company has indicated that much of the work had started on these projects and the timeline for the new 3.5 million project is pretty clear from today's release). I'll stick with my estimates, though I might have to retink the 1.5 million a quarter of normal recurring revenue as more of this undoubtedly takes place outside the winter months. But this should bring down the first quarter numbers (which are forecast to be extremely high) more than the 4th quarter numbers. In any case I can make arguments for a $4 share price regardless of the exact timing.

I'm not too concerned when the revenues are recognized as I've decided to keep this as one of my core holdings. Of course I said that before and then when a stock goes up 50 % or more in a few weeks, decided it wasn't really a core holding after all and sold out. But I can't afford to sell any of this stock before 06 as my realized capital gains tax position is already keeping me awake at night.

[FOOTWEDGE]

SMID - 10Q comments on backlog and upcoming Q(s), seems like could have better 4th Q then usual...


As of November 10, 2005 the Company's unaudited production backlog for booked
orders was approximately $14,800,000 as compared to approximately $7,500,000 at
the same time in 2004. This significant increase was the result of improved
economic conditions in the area and management's decision to apply more
resources to selling and marketing. The majority of the projects relating to the
backlog as of November 10, 2005 are scheduled to be produced and erected in the
last quarter of 2005 and first half of 2006. The Company has also seen
significant increases in the demand and sale of its Slenderwall(TM) and
soundwall product lines with current production backlog scheduled through the
third quarter 2006. Also, due to the lighter weight characteristics of the
Slenderwall(TM), the Company has been able to considerably expand its service
area into regions that previously could not be reached economically in the past.

The Company also enjoys a certain amount of regularly occurring repeat customer
business, which should be considered in addition to the contracted and ordered
production backlog described above. These orders typically have a quick turn
around and represent a significant portion of the Company's inventoried standard
products, such as highway safety barrier, utility and farm products