Value Microcaps Motherboard

[nutsaboutgolf2001]

Hweb re SMID

In 2002 and 2003 4th quarter revenues were quite low (4.8 and 3.8 million respectively), and yes those years showed marked seasonality. Much of this year's 4th quarter revenue will be on projects that were delayed (because of late government approvals) from previous quarters (thus the low earnings in second and third quarters). The company has indicated that much of the work had started on these projects and the timeline for the new 3.5 million project is pretty clear from today's release). I'll stick with my estimates, though I might have to retink the 1.5 million a quarter of normal recurring revenue as more of this undoubtedly takes place outside the winter months. But this should bring down the first quarter numbers (which are forecast to be extremely high) more than the 4th quarter numbers. In any case I can make arguments for a $4 share price regardless of the exact timing.

I'm not too concerned when the revenues are recognized as I've decided to keep this as one of my core holdings. Of course I said that before and then when a stock goes up 50 % or more in a few weeks, decided it wasn't really a core holding after all and sold out. But I can't afford to sell any of this stock before 06 as my realized capital gains tax position is already keeping me awake at night.