Replies to post #528 on Larry's Market Comments at Critical Points

[odiemutt]

Why would it be necessary for Iraq to counterattack?

It's not like they need to defeat the coalition military.
They only need to create a delaying action until world
opinion sours or US public opinion sours.
Delaying action in which they ambush US military, just
pick a few off each day. After a 30 to 60 days in which
we lose on average of 5 to 20 soldiers a day, we'll lose
our stomach.

This is quite possible to do, even with only a couple
thousand motivated Republican Guards.

We're desperatly hoping they surrender before we need
to take Baghdad. Otherwise it's going to be house
to house fighting which is going to result in many
dead on all sides, incuding civilians.

Best option is a seige of Baghdad. Starve them to
surrender. This will also be difficult when the
media starts showing starving children. UN will
start protesting... maybe even attempt air drops
of food which would defeat the seige.

Pray for Iraq to surrender soon.

PS, anyone recall any time since WW2 that the US
has tried to capture an occupied city? Vietnam was
very small towns, of which we pretty much
demolished them beforehand with carpet bombing.

odiemutt

[LisaAu]

A few questions regarding the 200,000 + service men and women:

How many actual troops (on the ground) are available to attack Baghdad?

How many are support staff, maintenance, supply, etc.?

How many need to be sleeping or getting some form of rest at any one time? (Hence, how many are able to fight right now?) Remember these troops are tired and stressed from moving North to Baghdad.

How many of the total group, American, British et al are going to be in other parts of Iraq, e.g., Basra, fighting in those places?

How does this relatively small number of troops take over and control a city of about 5 million people, where a bunch are angry and see the US as invaders and anti Muslim?

Looks like a tough situation to me that could get a lot tougher ... and last for who knows how long before we eventually win.

Iraq is about the size of California and has about 25 million people. That's not small potatoes, as my grandmother used to say!

(And then there's the possibility of WMD.)

IMHO

LisaAu

[wahz]

if they mass for a counter attack...daisy cutter