Larry's Market Comments at Critical Points

[TREND1]

THIS BOARD IS CLOSED: Please go to board

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=2267

[TREND1]

Just finished computer program that auto generates TREND LINES.
Today's break outs are clearly seen on the 30 minute charts of
most of the SMH Stocks

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2005/index.html

[TREND1]

Now here is the Weekly 4X21 Charts

Very Interesting (Currently only one losing position out of 20)
(1)Both Longs and Shorts
(2) Best 4X21 Long AMKR = 190 %
(3) Best 4X21 Short SNDK = 18.5%
(4) Only current losing position is LSI = -0.6%

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2005/index.html

[TREND1]

Reason I moved to #Board-2267

You can see latest chart on SMH,
just click "show Quotes"

[TREND1]

Very Interesting (Currently only one losing position out of 20)
(1)Both Longs and Shorts
(2) Best 4X21 Long VTSS = 31.1 %
(3) Best 4X21 Short NVLS = 20.2%
(4) Only current losing position is TXN = -0.2%

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2005/index.html


NOTE: I will be posting mostly on the board below.
Why?
Because you can see SMH quote each time you visit the board.
Do not know if FREE's see it?

[TREND1]

Please see #Board-2267

[TREND1]

SMH chart with T5B5 lines.
Note: SMH returned to green break out line every time,
except once. This info can be useful when trading SMH
IMHO.

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2005/index.html

[TREND1]

(1)21 charts of the SMH Holder, showing the days from the last touch of the Upper BB and Lower BB lines.
(2)Sorted by last touch of Upper BB

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2005/index.html

[TREND1]

SNDK (Weekly, Daily, 30 Minute)
Major sell, if SNDK breaks 53.20

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2005/index.html

[TREND1]

AMKR OUTLOOK
4:32PM Amkor beats by $0.03, guides higher (AMKR) 20.62 +0.83: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.13 per share, $0.03 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.10; revenues rose 23.0% year/year to $458.9 mln vs the $453.3 mln consensus. The co is guiding sequental revenue growth in Q1 of 2% to 4% and net income in the range of $0.08 to $0.11 cents per diluted share, which is higher than R.R. consensus estimates of $436.9 mln and earnings of $0.07 per share.

[TREND1]

LSI OUTLOOK
First Quarter Business Outlook
- Projected revenue range of $445 million to $455 million.
- GAAP range of break-even to a net loss of 2 cents per share.
- Net income per share, excluding special items(**), in the range of 3-5 cents.

[TREND1]

Sorted by date:

 
 N	SYM	Date	        LS	In	Last	%Gain	status 
 1	ATML	1/21/04 6:30	long	7.2	7.41	2.9	open 
 2	VTSS	1/21/04 11:30	long	8.3	8.48	2.2	closed 
 3	SMH	1/21/04 12:30	short	44.15	43.36	1.8	closed 
 4	AMKR	1/22/04 10:00	short	20.56	20.25	1.5	closed 
 5	BRCM	1/23/04 6:30	long	39.48	40.11	1.6	closed 
 6	AMD	1/26/04 6:30	short	16.2	15.48	4.4	closed 
 7	TER	1/26/04 7:00	short	29.9	27.99	6.4	closed 
 8	SNDK	1/26/04 9:00	short	69.73	60.34	13.5	closed 
 9	AMD	1/26/04 11:00	long	15.48	15.60	0.8	closed 
 10	SMH	1/26/04 11:00	long	43.36	43.04	-0.7	closed 
 11	AMKR	1/26/04 11:30	long	20.25	20.05	-1.0	closed 
 12	SNDK	1/26/04 12:30	long	60.3	59.46	-1.4	open 
 13	TER	1/26/04 12:30	long	27.99	27.40	-2.1	closed 
 14	NVLS	1/27/04 6:30	short	35.86	34.50	3.8	open 
 15	TER	1/27/04 6:30	short	27.4	27.54	-0.5	closed 
 16	SMH	1/27/04 7:30	short	43.04	43.09	-0.1	closed 
 17	AMKR	1/27/04 10:00	short	20.05	20.44	-1.9	closed 
 18	BRCM	1/27/04 10:00	short	40.11	43.21	-7.7	open 
 19	VTSS	1/27/04 10:30	short	8.48	8.76	-3.3	closed 
 20	AMD	1/27/04 12:30	short	15.6	15.77	-1.1	closed 
 21	AMD	1/28/04 6:30	long	15.77	15.79	0.1	open 
 22	AMKR	1/28/04 7:00	long	20.44	21.11	3.3	open 
 23	SMH	1/28/04 7:00	long	43.09	43.01	-0.2	open 
 24	TER	1/28/04 7:00	long	27.54	27.68	0.5	open 
 25	VTSS	1/28/04 7:00	long	8.76	8.70	-0.7	open 
 

[TREND1]

Some SMH stocks using 4X21
Note: Gain since 1/21/04 is 22.5%

 
 N	SYM	Date	        LS	In	Last	%Gain	status	22.5	22.5 
 1	AMD	1/26/04 6:30	short	16.2	15.48	4.4	closed		 
 2	AMD	1/26/04 11:00	long	15.48	15.60	0.8	closed		 
 3	AMD	1/27/04 12:30	short	15.6	15.77	-1.1	closed		 
 4	AMD	1/28/04 6:30	long	15.77	15.78	0.1	open	4.2	 
 5	AMKR	1/22/04 10:00	short	20.56	20.25	1.5	closed		 
 6	AMKR	1/26/04 11:30	long	20.25	20.05	-1.0	closed		 
 7	AMKR	1/27/04 10:00	short	20.05	20.44	-1.9	closed		 
 8	AMKR	1/28/04 7:00	long	20.44	21.16	3.5	open	2.1	 
 9	ATML	1/21/04 6:30	long	7.2	7.41	2.9	open	2.9	 
 10	BRCM	1/23/04 6:30	long	39.48	40.11	1.6	closed		 
 11	BRCM	1/27/04 10:00	short	40.11	43.18	-7.7	open	-6.1	 
 12	NVLS	1/27/04 6:30	short	35.86	34.46	3.9	open	3.9	 
 13	SMH	1/21/04 12:30	short	44.15	43.36	1.8	closed		 
 14	SMH	1/26/04 11:00	long	43.36	43.04	-0.7	closed		 
 15	SMH	1/27/04 7:30	short	43.04	43.09	-0.1	closed		 
 16	SMH	1/28/04 7:00	long	43.09	43.02	-0.2	open	0.8 
 17	SNDK	1/26/04 9:00	short	69.73	60.34	13.5	closed	 
 18	SNDK	1/26/04 12:30	long	60.3	59.55	-1.2	open	12.2 
 19	TER	1/26/04 7:00	short	29.9	27.99	6.4	closed	 
 20	TER	1/26/04 12:30	long	27.99	27.40	-2.1	closed	 
 21	TER	1/27/04 6:30	short	27.4	27.54	-0.5	closed	 
 22	TER	1/28/04 7:00	long	27.54	27.69	0.5	open	4.3 
 23	VTSS	1/21/04 11:30	long	8.3	8.48	2.2	closed	 
 24	VTSS	1/27/04 10:30	short	8.48	8.76	-3.3	closed	 
 25	VTSS	1/28/04 7:00	long	8.76	8.70	-0.7	open	-1.8 
 

[TREND1]

The following SMH stocks have reached their Pivot Buy area.
There are no buy signals yet.

ALTR
AMAT
NVLS (high risk do to touching of Lower 13WHL Line)
SNDK (high risk do to touching of Lower 13WHL Line)

[TREND1]

Last touch of 13 week High Low Line.
(Used to determine stock's weekly trend)
Today NVLS joined SNDK with a touch of it's LOWER 13 WHL line.
All others last touched there HIGHER 13 WHL line.

Translation:
Nearly all SMH stocks are still very bullish
But watch out for SNDK and NVLS

[TREND1]

BRCM OUTLOOK
SAN FRANCISCO, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Broadcom Corp. (NasdaqNM:BRCM - News), a maker of communications-related microchips, on Tuesday said it expects revenue in the current quarter to rise as much as 10 percent over the fourth quarter, with gross margins about the same as in the last quarter.

[TREND1]

Daily 4X21 study

 
 N	SYM	Date	        LS	In	Last	%Gain	status 
 1	TER	12/23/03	long	24.35	26.79	10.0	open 
 2	BRCM	12/24/03	long	34.22	40.60	18.6	open 
 3	SMH	12/29/03	long	41.80	42.35	1.3	closed 
 4	ATML	12/30/03	long	6.10	7.41	21.5	open 
 5	AMKR	01/05/04	long	19.33	19.79	2.4	open 
 6	AMD	01/06/04	long	15.61	15.56	-0.3	closed 
 7	VTSS	01/06/04	long	6.49	8.53	31.4	open 
 8	SNDK	01/22/04	short	59.75	58.14	2.7	open 
 9	SMH	12/29/03	short	42.35	42.35	0.0	open 
 10	AMD	01/06/04	short	15.56	15.56	0.0	open 
 

[TREND1]

30 Minute 4X21 Study Updated for 8 SMH Stocks

 
 N	SYM	Date	        LS	In	Last	%Gain	status 
 1	ATML	1/21/04 6:30	long	7.2	7.44	3.3	open 
 2	VTSS	1/21/04 11:30	long	8.3	8.56	3.1	open 
 3	SMH	1/21/04 12:30	short	44.15	43.36	1.8	closed 
 4	AMKR	1/22/04 10:00	short	20.56	20.25	1.5	closed 
 5	BRCM	1/23/04 6:30	long	39.48	40.11	1.6	closed 
 6	AMD	1/26/04 6:30	short	16.2	15.48	4.4	closed 
 7	TER	1/26/04 7:00	short	29.9	27.99	6.4	closed 
 8	SNDK	1/26/04 9:00	short	69.73	60.34	13.5	closed 
 9	AMD	1/26/04 11:00	long	15.48	15.76	1.8	open 
 10	SMH	1/26/04 11:00	long	43.36	42.55	-1.9	open 
 11	AMKR	1/26/04 11:30	long	20.25	20.05	-1.0	closed 
 12	TER	1/26/04 12:30	long	27.99	27.40	-2.1	closed 
 13	SNDK	1/26/04 12:30	long	60.3	59.63	-1.1	open 
 14	TER	1/27/04 6:30	short	27.4	27.13	1.0	open 
 15	AMKR	1/27/04 10:00	short	20.05	20.00	0.2	open 
 16	BRCM	1/27/04 10:00	short	40.11	40.19	-0.2	open 
  
  
  
  
 

[TREND1]

VTSS 4X21 Study
1=week
2=day
3=30 minute
4=5 minute
time = PST

 
 N	VTSS	Date	        LS	In	Last	%Gain	status 
 1	2	1/6/04 1:00 PM	long	6.49	8.66	33.4	open 
 2	1	1/9/04 1:00 PM	long	6.84	8.66	26.6	open 
 3	3	1/23/04 6:30 AM	long	8.30	8.66	4.3	open 
 4	4	1/26/04 9:50 AM	long	8.56	8.81	2.9	closed 
 5	4	1/27/04 8:20 AM	short	8.81	8.66	1.7	open 
 

[TREND1]

TXN OUTLOOK
Co guides Q104, sees EPS of $0.16-0.22, vs the R.R. consensus of $0.17, and revenues of of $2.72-2.95 bln vs an estimate of $2.69 bln.

[TREND1]

ALTR OUTLOOK
Going forward, Altera expects its first-quarter revenue to be in a range of $230 million to $235 million. Wall Street analysts previously pegged Altera's first-quarter revenue at $229 million

[TREND1]

Daily 4X21 EMA Study

 
 N	SYM	Date	Time	BS	In	Last	%Gain	status 
 1	SNDK	1/22	13:00	short	59.75	60.35	-1.0	open 
 2	AMD	1/6	13:00	long	15.61	15.60	-0.1	open 
 3	AMKR	1/5	13:00	long	19.33	20.25	4.8	open 
 4	SMH	12/29	13:00	long	41.80	43.75	4.7	open 
 5	TER	12/23	13:00	long	24.35	27.99	14.9	open 
 6	BRCM	12/24	13:00	long	34.22	41.35	20.8	open 
 7	ATML	12/30	13:00	long	6.10	7.43	21.8	open 
 8	VTSS	1/6	13:00	long	6.49	8.74	34.7	open 
 

[TREND1]

NVLS OUTLOOK
Looking forward, Novellus forecast first-quarter profits of 8 cents a share, 3 cents lower than analysts polled by Thomson First Call had expected. The company told investors to expect revenue ranging from $240 million to $250 million vs. expectations of $219.5 million.

[TREND1]

30 minute 4X21 EMA Study

 
 N	SYM	Date	Time	BS	In	Last	%Gain	status 
 1	ATML	1/21/04	6:30	long	7.2	7.43	3.2	open 
 2	VTSS	1/21/04	11:30	long	8.3	8.74	5.3	open 
 3	SMH	1/21/04	12:30	short	44.15	43.36	1.8	closed 
 4	AMKR	1/22/04	10:00	short	20.56	20.25	1.5	closed 
 5	BRCM	1/23/04	6:30	long	39.48	41.35	4.7	open 
 6	AMD	1/26/04	6:30	short	16.2	15.48	4.4	closed 
 7	TER	1/26/04	7:00	short	29.9	27.99	6.4	closed 
 8	SNDK	1/26/04	9:00	short	69.73	60.34	13.5	closed 
 9	AMD	1/26/04	11:00	long	15.48	15.60	0.8	open 
 10	SMH	1/26/04	11:00	long	43.36	43.75	0.9	open 
 11	AMKR	1/26/04	11:30	long	20.25	20.25	0.0	open 
 12	TER	1/26/04	12:30	long	27.99	27.99	0.0	open 
 13	SNDK	1/26/04	7:12	long	60.3	60.35	0.1	open 
  
  
  
  
 

[TREND1]

Weekly 4X21 EMA Study

 
 N	SYM	Date	Time	BS	In	Last	%Gain	status 
 1	SNDK	1/23/04	13:00	short	59.78	60.35	-1.0	open 
 2	VTSS	1/9/04	13:00	long	6.84	8.74	27.8	open 
 3	SMH	4/17/03	13:00	long	26.45	43.75	65.4	open 
 4	TER	5/9/03	13:00	long	13.06	27.99	114.3	open 
 5	AMD	7/11/03	13:00	long	7.20	15.60	116.7	open 
 6	BRCM	4/25/03	13:00	long	17.65	41.35	134.3	open 
 7	ATML	5/9/03	13:00	long	2.42	7.43	207.0	open 
 8	AMKR	3/21/03	13:00	long	5.90	20.25	243.2	open 
 

[TREND1]

NVLS OUTLOOK
Looking ahead to the first quarter, the company said it expects a profit of 8 cents a share on between $240 million and $250 million in sales. Analysts had pegged Novellus to earn 11 cents a share.

[TREND1]

% Gains in SMH Stocks
(1)From 3/14/03 to 1/23/04
(2)AMKR highest=326%
(3)LLTC lowest=26%

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2005/index.html

[TREND1]

VTSS OUTLOOK (MORE)
Updated from 10:07 a.m. EST

Kicking off the first quarter of fiscal 2004, chipmaker Vitesse (VTSS:Nasdaq - commentary - research) managed to break even on a pro forma basis a quarter ahead of expectations. It also guided above consensus estimates for sales and earnings in the quarter now under way.


Investors were pleased, sending Vitesse shares up 57 cents, or 7.3%, to $8.39 in the first 30 minutes of Friday's session.

In a research note, Wedbush Morgan analyst David Wu called Vitesse "our favorite stock in the wide area network communications IC group because it has much better operating leverage than its larger peer PMC-Sierra at a fraction of the valuation, and a more balanced business model than Applied Micro Circuits at the same valuation." (Wu has hold ratings on PMC-Sierra and Applied Micro Circuits.)

For calendar year 2005, Vitesse trades at 24 times earnings, compared to 52 times and 58 times for Applied Micro and PMC-Sierra, respectively, according to Wu. On a ratio of enterprise value to projected revenue for 2005, Vitesse changes hands at 4.6 times, Applied Micro at 4.8 times, and PMC-Sierra at 8.8 times, he noted.

Wu has a buy rating on the stock; Wedbush Morgan hasn't done investment banking for Vitesse.

The Camarillo, Calif.-based company, which makes silicon used in computer storage and communications, posted sales of $50.3 million, up from $35.7 million for the same quarter last year. Wall Street had penciled in estimates for sales of $48.1 million.

[TREND1]

AMD OUTLOOK
The first quarter is typically weaker for companies throughout the semiconductor industry as consumers take a break from holiday buying binges.

AMD predicted flat sales of its flash memory products and seasonal declines for its microprocessors. AMD expects to continue market share gains for sales of flash memory

[TREND1]

INTC OUTLOOK
After a year that executives said started with a question mark and ended with an exclamation point, Intel predicted a return to normal seasonal patterns with a decline in revenue in the current quarter from the fourth quarter

[TREND1]

KLAC OUTLOOK
In a conference call with analysts, executives of KLA-Tencor predicted orders would rise 15 percent or more in the current quarter from the December-ending quarter, with revenue of $370 million to $380 million, and earnings of 27 cents to 29 cents a share.

Analysts, on average, had expected earnings of 25 cents a share on revenue of $353 million, according to Reuters Research.

[TREND1]

VTSS OUTLOOOK
Vitesse guided for March-quarter sequential sales growth of 10%, implying revenue of $55.3 million. Analysts had been expecting revenue of $51.7 million. The company projects a GAAP loss of 3 cents to 5 cents a share. Pro forma income should be 1 cent a share, better than Wall Street expectations for break-even.

[TREND1]

ATML Outlook

The Company anticipates that in the first quarter of 2004, revenues should be sequentially up 1-5%. Additionally, R&D should be approximately $59-63 million, while SG&A should be between $38-42 million. Finally, gross margins should be down slightly during the first quarter, primarily due to the weakening dollar. Net interest expense for the quarter should be approximately $5.5 million for the first quarter. We anticipate that depreciation and amortization will be approximately $72-73 million.

For the full year of 2004, the Company anticipates being profitable on revenue growth of 23-30%. R&D spending should grow a couple of million dollars per quarter, ranging from $248-264 million for the total year. SG&A spending should trend upward by approximately one million dollars per quarter, ranging from $154-172 million for the total year. Gross margins should improve during the year as revenue increases, beginning in the second quarter. Interest expense should decrease by approximately one half million dollars per quarter, while taxes should be about $16 million for the year.

[TREND1]

SMH 30 minute chart updated
Looks very bearish.IMHO.

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2005/index.html

[TREND1]

XLNX
After besting sales and earnings estimates for its December quarter, chipmaker Xilinx (XLNX:Nasdaq - commentary - research) tromped Wall Street's sales forecast for its March quarter and raised its gross margin outlook, lifted by a surge in demand from the communications sector.

[TREND1]

SNDK
But the company's stock slipped almost 7 percent in after-hours trade after it said that average prices will decline moderately in the first half and that price declines in the second half will reflect new capacity increases in the flash memory market.

[LisaAu]

Nice table, Larry. Thanks.

Nice improvement for XLNX since last year, same Q.

XLNX up now in AH, 2.3%

[TREND1]

XLNX

 
 Quarterly Information 
      (In millions, except EPS) 
                                    Q3 FY    Q2 FY    Q3 FY   Growth Rates 
                                    2004     2004     2003    Q-T-Q  Y-T-Y 
      Revenues                     $365.6   $315.5   $282.7    16%    29% 
      Operating income (loss)        85.7     69.0     (2.0)   24%    NM 
      Net income (loss)              69.4     56.4     (3.4)   23%    NM 
      Net income per share (loss)   $0.19    $0.16    (0.01)   19%    NM 
 

[TREND1]

Today's Pivot Sells:

 
 Trigger Time  Symbol Description  
  2004/01/21 01:06:37 PM TER Pivot Sell 29.82  
  2004/01/21 01:06:37 PM VTSS Pivot Sell 8.16  
  2004/01/21 01:06:33 PM LSI Pivot Sell 11.15  
  2004/01/21 01:06:32 PM ATML Pivot Sell 7.28  
 

[TREND1]

SMH 30 minute chart
(1)Broke up trend.
(2)Failed test of high

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2005/index.html

[TREND1]

(1)Pivot Sells Today
ATML
LSI
TER
VTSS
.........................
(2)DHH=1
DLL=17
..............
(3)Below 21 SMA
ALTR
INTC
LLTC
NSM
NVLS
.................
(4) Touched Upper BB Today
AMKR
ATML
...........................
(5)RSI(14)>70
LSI
............................
(6)Index DHH=0
Index DLL=5
Index inside day=2
Index outside day=1
.............................

Translation:
Looks like a correction is under way.IMHO.

[TREND1]

SMH WEEKLY CHART
(1)Down -55% from high on 7/14/2000
(2)Up +142% from a low on 10/4/2002

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2005/index.html

[TREND1]

SMH 30 minute chart
(1)4x21 sell
(2)trend broken to down side

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[TREND1]

8 of 8 indexes I follow have DLL(daily lower lows)
6 of 8 have both DHH and DLL(reversal day to down side)

[TREND1]

SMH daily chart since March 2003
(1)Pivot Sells
(2)Pivot Buys

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[TREND1]

10:32AM PT SMH Daily Charts
showing DHH and DLL

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[TREND1]

At 8:11AM PT
Add TXN to DHH group

But still just side ways movement in general.IMHO.

[TREND1]

At 7:39AM PT

DHH(Daily Higher High):
AMKR
BRCM
MXIM

DLL(Daily Lower Low):
AMKR
MU

Translation:
SMH stocks have not made up their mind on what to do today
yet !

[TREND1]

All Indexes 30 minute charts have sells,
except SMH

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[TREND1]

Updated my Profile
Click name to view.