Replies to post #113393 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[freethemice]

Good, yet another reason to expect better. Looking at your first-line estimates given in
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=84415167
if we took Jan 6 as the date the MOS was reached, that would be exactly 16 months since the
enrollment closed. I just don't see how the MOS could be less than 17-18 months. This will be fantastic
if the control arm comes in with 9-11 months, as I expect it will.

[freethemice]

In comparison with the Avastin + CP first-line trial there is another issue which I have brought up before,
but I think it is important so I am going to bring it up again. That is the total lack of a survival benefit
found in the Avastin trial for women. Now that lung cancer is the biggest cancer killer of women
this has even more relevance. Here are the numbers from the Sandler et al paper which reported
the Avastin trial results in the NEJM. The MOS overall was 10.3 months in the control arm,
and 12.3 months in the treatment arm.

For the Avastin + CP treatment arm
Male 210 patients (50%), Female 207 patients (50%)
CP control arm
Male 253 (58%), Female 180 (42%)

Subgroup Analysis
Hazard Ratio
Male 0.70, Female 0.98

Median survival control arm
Male 8.7 months, Female 13.1 months
Median survival Treatment arm
Male 11.7 months, Female 13.3 months

A sebsequent paper confirmed this lack of response in women. What is going on here is not clear.
Obviously the MOS for women increased the overall MOS for the trial. Why both the control and
treatment arms for women had a larger MOS, but not different, is the question. It will be very interesting
to see the breakdown for the bavi trial.

[MazelMan]

Mojo

Any changes ??


I have the 1st-line NSCLC MOS estimate at between 17.1 and 18.7 months. This was partially based on information taken from the 12/12/2012 corporate fact sheet. There they stated that the "Median OS" was still pending. For the the 1/31/2013 fact sheet they changed the wording to say "Overall Survival" is still pending. This indicates that the MOS was reached between 12/12/2012 and 1/31/2013.

TIA

Dave