The SOX sometimes lags a bit off these lows, so it may put in a top a day or so after the COMP. I haven't looked at a SOX chart, so that's just speculation on my part.
Your #msg-848998 is intriguing, but I'm not sure I understand it. If you have a moment, would you mind explaining a little?
I watch Les' scans too, and noticed that the ndx shows 99% of its stocks are above their 10dmas, along with a few other extreme readings. I also noticed, as you pointed out, that the 10dma semi percentages are not as high as they have been at some other local tops in the past.
When you say "the long term picture of the Sox is also improving since the percentage of stocks going above their 200 DMA has moved to a new recovery high above the January level of about 20%," I assume you mean that the 200dma's for the semis have been dropping, so the percentages of stocks above them have increased, which is a bullish development long-term.
If so, I don't understand the following sentence "I would say that indicates that very short term we are due for a severe relapse..."
When I looked this morning only at the 10dma and 21dma figures for the ndx, I concluded that the market's rubber band is stretched very tight, supporting a short term severe relapse, as you suggest.
I guess I don't understand your comment on the 200dmas on the semis. If you're thinking of revising your target of 184 for the sox, are you thinking about revising it up, based on the increase in semis over their 200dmas? The sox has certainly been out-performing most other indexes recently. I've assumed that's because hedge funds and other traders have recently been loading up on high beta stocks like the semis to get the most out of a war rally. TIA
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