Let say we go back to 1260 or so on the Naz and to around 250 on the sox, but the percentage of Sox stock above their 200 DMA does not decline below 10 (roughly where they were when the indices hit their recent low), we will be in the process of having that series making new higher highs and higher lows, namely, the long term down trend might be arrested. The short term MA indicates (particularly the NDX and S&P) an extreme in optimism (how much more than 99% can you go to?) is present and requires retrenchment, at least short term. Until we look at that series ear a future local low, no major conclusion cn be drawn . If for instance the Sox 200 dma series drops under 10 on the next decline, all what is said above and the post you cites is moot..
Zeev
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