One thing you left out of hyour assessment of Addax, Balance, is the fact that the company has a $250 million credit line and has only drawn down $60 million. That money is certainly adequate to carry everyone and get a rig out there. I hear a mean little voice saying "Monday, you die!" but I am less certain now than I was Thursday or Friday that we will suffer at all. I actually had a dream of a river in which there was a sharp drop to a boiling maelstrom/whirlpool below. But the unspoken element was that the river doesn't end there; it's not all like this.
First, we did resolve the issue of the bizarre selling and the mystery of the price, both of which can be substantially attributed to the uncertainty surrounding Noble and earlier, Devon, leaving us with a more certain outlook. I think the folks who were gaming this stock will now recognize we have an ambiguous volatility, the kind they don't like because it raises risk, and back off it. I still believe the company itself has raised substantial amounts of cash - perhaps $40 million or more - by selling equities to prepare for these eventualities.
Second, I think Nigeria is going to be comgfortable with these two companies as the operator because it fulfills a central goal of their president, which is to develop and strengthen the Nigerian petroleum industry. on the exploration front. They now have two capable companies (we are capable of raising money, and through Chrome Oil Services also of maintaining rigs) with strong Nigerian ties that can arguably be presented as a new Nigerian front in the offshore oil business.
So, as the bottom line, I now think we will fall sharpluy but briefly on Monday, and recover most or all of that ground before the day is out. I'd love to know what others think.
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