Insider information I strongly support your thought that what the average "Joe" knows is woefully lacking and makes our investments really nothing more than a crapshoot. I feel investors should be informed of major events(if indeed true)such as Noble being very dissatisfied with the JDZ awards and threatening to withdraw. Makes me wonder after I have got my clock cleaned in certain stocks why I invested in them to begin with. All goes back to we can only base our decisions on news known at that time and most times that is totally in the dark.
Remember how long it took to get acceptance of awards following the 5-31-05 awards? I never did understand why it would take til the end of June (or there abouts) to get the winners to accept their awards. Perhaps NBL wasn't a happy camper from day one with the list of other participants.
I wasn't sure how I felt with the recent Addax Petroleum news. Initially I believed they were strapped for cash and wondered just how they could finance a venture in the deep offshore. Then Kobi (RB) posted a comment on Addax's finances:
That took me back to the Addax Petroleum website. Under the "Organization" tab I quickly learned that Addax Petroleum was simply a subsidiary to the Addax & ORYX Group:
That said, I don't believe financing is a concern. As you can see by the chart, there are several subsidiaries in the mix. Ok....now why would big daddy to their Petroleum Subsidiary be willing to fork out the bucks for an expensive venture in the deep offshore in the JDZ?
1) I feel most confident that the seismic in B-4 is outstanding, thus the wallering by APC and XOM to get into the block.
2) Big daddy's subsidiary (Addax Petroleum) has very rapidly grown from 40K barrels of oil production a day in 2004 to an expected 100K barrels a day expected in middle of next year (2006). It is also noteworthy that Addax claims to be the largest independent oil company in Nigeria and the 6'th largest producer of oil altogether in Nigeria. It should also be mentioned that they have successfully reduced their cost of producing a barrel of oil from $12 US to $5.4 US in 2003. That is significant.
Ok....still not satified that big daddy would put out the cash for development of an expensive deep offshore venture to their subsidiary? Maybe #3 below would convince them?
3) How about big daddy loan the money to their subsidiary because of Addax Petroleums quicklike return on their money. There histroy demonstrates ABILITY to GET ER DUN!
"March 2005 - Challenging project brought into production fifteen months after investment decision. Addax Petroleum is delighted to announce first oil on the Okwori Project. The first Oil on this important and complex project is flowing only eight months after spudding the first development well."
Connected???? erhcfan correctly pointed out a very big connection in the Nigerian governement.
"Mr OAR (Afolabi) Oladele Nationality: Nigerian Positions Held: - Group Executive Director - Refining & Petrochems, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation - Director, Addax Petroleum Development (Nigeria) Ltd" http://www.mbendi.co.za/pers/p1ac.htm
Hmmm....the director to Addax earlier served as an director with the NNPC. A healthy headstart IMHO.
I don't see financing as any sort of issue here. Addax has proven themsleves successful.
They've also proven themselves as fast trackers based on their history. No, they don't have deepwater experience but wouldn't Nigeria want one of their own involved in the deep water venture? I think so. The drilling is pretty much a contracted venture anyway. With the proper connections, perhaps a rig could be slotted timely!
Best yet....my guess is OFFOR will secure a better deal (i.e. larger percentage) with Addax than we had with NBL.
I sincerely doubt the JDA/JMC will have much issue with approving Addax into the consortium. Just as importantly, did anyone notice that the ERHC PR didn't even consider ERHC losing out on the award after NBL left? Political. Political. Political. We held it and now await approval from our new found partner. With the strong Nigerian content of ADDAX, the Nigerian factors will be quick to give Addax partnership in B-4 their nod of approval. They are proven in Nigeria.
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