Replies to post #12880 on Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[JUST 10-11-12]

talk to westeffer about your questions..I am sure you will
NOT short this one after your discussion.

[El Hefe]

I only have time to answer #5. You're right that this is phase I and for safety, but they have placed secondary outcomes for this trial that includes efficacy. One quote from someone I remember readin was "These guys aren't @&%*%ing around!" When he saw the Phase I trial write up.
Don't make the same mistake other well known people are making. Spend a 1/2 hour of DD and you will easily find these answers and become a long. I would reccomend reading all of DrFeelgoods posts regarding CTIX and of course the stickies. GLTY

[gold team]

sounds like you need to be short CTIX lol go big you'll love the ouy come lol

[romaa]

I'm trying my best to respond to your questions just for the fun:

1- They are smart.
2- They are smart.
3- They aren't smart
4- They are smart.
5- They are smart.

It was just to depress after a full day trading...

Roma

[buccaneer1961]

do you know what the 2 products they have that have current activity on them...and the timeframes? thats where to start

[BonelessCat]

>>I am primarily a short seller and CTIX is hitting some of my scans. It looks fishy, but I haven't done enough work to have any firm conclusions.

Yes, your lack of DD shows in the questions you ask.

So I hope the board can jumpstart my research by addressing some of the red flags I see:

1. How can they actually develop drugs with only $124k of cash (in last 10Q). Most biotechs in early stages have millions to fund their research programs and trials.

Other people's money. Read about Dr. Menon. He owns KARD Scientific. That should explain and answer a lot.

2. How can they actually develop these drugs when they spent only $185k of R&D in last reported quarter. Most biotechs spend millions per quarter.

Same as above. Also, examine what the principles have put into the company. Look at the loans from the CEO.

3. Why is there no analyst coverage? They presented at Rodman. They need money. If their drugs have any real potential why are analyst not fighting with each other to put on the strongest "Buy" rating possible?

Analysts think exactly like you. They haven't a clue and really don't want to go beyond fundamentals reflected in the SEC filings.

4. Why have they named their drugs even though they aren't past phase I? Normally companies don't name drugs until Phase III or even FDA approval as such a small percentage progress that far.

Biotechs will give internal names for drugs in development. Most drug IDs are internal tracking names, hence KLM-237 or some such thing. Kevetrin and Prurisol were given names when they were the only two drugs in development. Development names are not uncommon, and usually involve some contraction of the chemical composition of the base molecule. The name is then changed to a commercial name following approval and licensing. Example: Oseltamivir => TamiFlu

5. Why are they putting out interim updates on Phase I studies? Phase I is just safety. Positive Phase I results aren't that big of a deal. It will be good if the drug doesn't kill anyone, but the sample size is far to small to produce any kind of statistically significant results on efficacy. So what is the point of putting out PRs for small steps in a study Phase that isn't even that big a deal when it is done?

Kevetrin Phase 1 is more than just safety. Read the secondary outcomes.

[JUST 10-11-12]

THEY ARE DOING CLINICAL TRIALS AT HARVARD! with some of the top brains in the business. Their staff, per Wes, is going places
"NO OTHER PENNY STOCK HAS GONE"...I suggest to BUY rather than short!

[MinnieM]

Valid, but, surprising questions. Most retail investors can't short penny stocks without going to great expense. The risk reward isn't worth it. And, then, there is the problem of finding the shares to short. I have an Interactive Brokers (IB) account and fully understand that game.

What surprises me is that you haven't done your own DD if you have an account large enough to be able to short a penny stock? Lack of time perhaps?

Anyway, I'll make a rough attempt at answering since I'm dealing with a lack of time at the moment. But, feel free to ask away if you have other questions. I'm sure someone will answer. ;) That's what the board is for. Discussion both pro and con. It's the way we learn. ;)

Your questions are in italics.

Questions.

I am primarily a short seller and CTIX is hitting some of my scans. It looks fishy, but I haven't done enough work to have any firm conclusions. So I hope the board can jumpstart my research by addressing some of the red flags I see:

1. How can they actually develop drugs with only $124k of cash (in last 10Q). Most biotechs in early stages have millions to fund their research programs and trials.

It’s obvious that CTIX can’t fund this on their own. There must be some deep pockets involved here. That in itself is a reason to go long. The current trial is being done at Harvard’s Dana Farber. Harvard itself has endowments. Pfizer is well aware of Kevetrin™ and some think they may be funding the trials. Based on a pr in May, Beth Israel Deaconess Hospital is covering the costs of their research on Kevetrin™ in combination studies with Pfizer drugs on an upcoming trial. Another clue that Pfizer may be involved with some of the funding on this one. All we know for sure is that CTIX isn’t putting much up for the trials, which indicates some deep pockets are stepping in to help. Following deep pockets usually pays off.

2. How can they actually develop these drugs when they spent only $185k of R&D in last reported quarter. Most biotechs spend millions per quarter.

See answer to #1

3. Why is there no analyst coverage? They presented at Rodman. They need money. If their drugs have any real potential why are analyst not fighting with each other to put on the strongest "Buy" rating possible?

It’s still an OTC stock under $5 without the first trial completed. After $5 you’ll see analysts and news articles like crazy since it won’t get there unless these drugs work on humans. Plus, some are short sighted and wait for PDUFA dates.

4. Why have they named their drugs even though they aren't past phase I? Normally companies don't name drugs until Phase III or even FDA approval as such a small percentage progress that far.

The naming may fall hand in hand with the patent creation. They also feel very strongly that the drug will work.

5. Why are they putting out interim updates on Phase I studies? Phase I is just safety. Positive Phase I results aren't that big of a deal. It will be good if the drug doesn't kill anyone, but the sample size is far to small to produce any kind of statistically significant results on efficacy. So what is the point of putting out PRs for small steps in a study Phase that isn't even that big a deal when it is done?

Most chemotherapy drugs show toxic effects during phase I. A PR confirming human tolerability and lack of toxicity at starting dose is wonderful. As a shareholder, I’m delighted the company keeps us up to date.

Plus, in this case they are looking for secondary findings.

Following are some links and information to help you in your DD:
http://cellceutix.com/
Company Address:
100 Cumming Center, Suite 151-B
Beverly, MA 01915
978.236.8717 Phone
978.921.6564 Fax
E-mail: [e-mail]

CIK: 0001355250

SEC filings: http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=Cellceutix+Corp&match=&CIK=ctix&filenum=&State=&Country=&SIC=&owner=exclude&Find=Find+Companies&action=getcompany

OTCQB: http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ctix/quote
Recent News: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=CTIX+Headlines
Clinical trials: http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/nct01664000?term=kevetrin+rank=1
Management: http://cellceutix.com/team/
Product Pipeline: http://cellceutix.com/pipeline

From the CEO’s Desk: The Best Is Yet To Come
http://cellceutix.com/best-yet-to-come/

[TOB]

I can see the attraction of shorting penny stock rallies, most do decline, most penny stocks are garbage with high floats and owner management that issue shares to pay their own salaries.

Bio-techs are more sincere, but I agree many suffer high dilution at early research and initial clinical trial stages, and many flop and fail to bring a drug to market.

But CTIX is an exception to this rule. For one, it has very high insider ownership, rather than selling shares to finance themselves, the owners are financing the shareholders. In fact, Management insiders own 72.41% of CTIX, so their interest are closely aligned with CTIX shareholders as they are the largest CTIX shareholders.

Further, CTIX is in a long-term up trend which has dominated this year. In prior years, $1 resistance was always a good place to sell or go short, but now CTIX has seen the $1 resistance change to support.

Yes, this $1 line has flip-flopped a couple times between resistance and support, and we see a pattern of returning to the 50 day MA after rallies, but this is a pattern of a series of higher lows, which equals an uptrend.

For this reason I personally favour buying dips, or even break-outs with CTIX. Yes, it is OK to take profits at rallies and buy back at dips, but this is a scalping game for the nimble and experienced. We are indeed at a logical place to expect a small decline. No doubt this same scalping can be done with shorting shares, but the risk is much higher.

Short selling CTIX also has a very bad reward to risk ratio. Unlimited upside risk, and limited down-side profit. But best of luck to all. IMO short sellers help longs in any up-trend by providing liquidity and holding back bubble rallies. So longs get in at more reasonable prices.

.

[biomanbaba]

5. Why are they putting out interim updates on Phase I studies? Phase I is just safety. Positive Phase I results aren't that big of a deal. It will be good if the drug doesn't kill anyone, but the sample size is far to small to produce any kind of statistically significant results on efficacy. So what is the point of putting out PRs for small steps in a study Phase that isn't even that big a deal when it is done?

You are a hot dog so I wont bother teaching you where to find the protocol. I can tell you havent read and understood it by your remarks. You must also be blind to the power of P53 activation
because you fail to understand that IS THE BALLGAME. We WILL KNOW from the testing that CAN NOW BE DONE that p53 IS ACTIVATED and that KEVETRIN will be effective in 50% of all cancers. There is a high probability that the FDA gives them BREAKTHROUGH DRUG status and a PDUFA date at the end of PHASE I.