Replies to post #296922 on Billionaire Boys Club Member Forum (BBCMF)

[Troy Lando]

Yup all was going well until the moment they announced it

[mick]

read'ins a little; THIS Could Kill America's Shale Boom
the great American treasure hidden beneath our feet that will power our nation for the next hundred years.

It'll heat our homes, power our trucks and buses, and even provide some pretty big paydays for those who will ultimately export it to nations willing to pay small fortunes to get it.

going to pick up where coal leaves off... It will provide the perfect bridge and storage applications for renewables

Consumers and investors are beyond enthusiastic about shale gas.

bullish on natural gas

guru Bill Powers

Powers claimed the importance of shale gas has been overstated — and that the U.S. doesn't have anywhere near a 100-year supply.

A Shale Gas Folly?

Powers has a book due out next year that takes a closer look at the shale gas boom in the United States

production decline in the Haynesville and Barnett shales. Output is declining in the Woodford Shale in Oklahoma. Some of the older shale plays, such as the Fayetteville Shale, are starting to roll over. As these shale plays reverse direction and the Marcellus Shale slows down its production growth, overall U.S. production will fall.

Canadian production is falling. And Canada has historically been the main natural gas import source for the U.S. In fact, Canada has already experienced a significant decline in gas production — about 25%, since a peak in 2002 — and has dramatically slowed its exports to the United States.

Arthur Berman published a report in which he found that industry reserves had been overstated by at least 100% based on detailed review of both individual well and group decline profiles for Barnett, Fayetteville, and Haynesville Shale plays.

And just last month, energy and Peak Oil expert Chris Nelder wrote:

the decline rates of shale gas wells are steep. They vary widely from play to play, but the output of shale gas wells commonly falls by 50% to 60% or more in the first year of production.


U.S., the aggregate decline of natural gas production from both conventional and unconventional sources is now 32% per year, so 22 bcf/d of new production must be added every year to keep overall production flat, according to Canadian geologist David Hughes. That's close to the total output of U.S. shale gas, after nearly a decade of its development. It will require thousands more shale gas and tight oil wells to keep domestic gas production flat.

are they simply sounding a false alarm?

[mick]

excerpt; Why Get Screwed Again?

Screwed in the markets. Screwed at the gas pump. Screwed by big banks.
And screwed by fat cat members of Congress who have something you don't:
the unfair advantage of being able to make plays on privileged information.

you know what insiders like Nancy Pelosi did you could use it to bank hundreds of triple-gains. The crazy part is that it's all perfectly legal.

A New (Energy) Problem Awaits in Germany
is this why german tops went to russia recently?

the consultations in Frankfurt - one tomorrow afternoon and another Friday morning. Both deal with the trajectory of crude oil prices, but both have very different participants.

Tomorrow's meeting involves bankers. Friday brings in the corporate folks.

While they both need to get their hands around pricing volatility, each has a different underlying interest. European banks in the current environment now have less leverage to establish investment packages for oil deals, thanks to the ongoing credit constriction.

That has changed the approach of oil companies seeking capital. These days, everyone is affected, even the "big boys" I'll meet with at the end of the week. It used to be in the "old days" - two years ago, some things change rapidly in the international oil patch - companies would simply collateralize their reserves.

company would conservatively value the oil still in the ground, coming up with a figure well below what the field geologists know is extractable. A point bank (usually the major "book runner" for finance) would then lowball the expected market value of that already low-volume estimate.

The bank would then syndicate loan risk to a number of other financial institutions, and both sides would make money. The company securing finance would come in with production levels higher than the estimate used in the loan papers and the syndicated network of banks would realize sales at a higher price than the artificially low number used in crunching the initial loan figures.

oil financing business would take place there with Deutsche Bank being the world's leader in designing syndicated loans for field projects.

How Renewables Could Lower Energy Prices in 2013
Electricity rates may be coming down, oddly, because of government subsidies on things like wind and solar. Just how much of that ends up in the pocket of a normal consumer is unknown.

Logistics is the (Real) Energy Opportunity after Sandy
Since the Hurricane hit the East Coast last week, a recurring, disturbing bit of advice has surfaced on those cable news investment shows

"U.S. Redraws World Oil Map." U.S. oil production is on pace to surpass Saudi Arabia by 2020. It's all thanks to the U.S. shale boom. But - with apologies to Voltaire and Spiderman - with such great fortune comes greater responsibility.

[mick]

Obama's Biggest Green Energy Blunder
wasted billions of your money by giving it away to his solar cronies...

the White House's biggest energy blunder could be what it didn't do.

The Obama administration was so busy squandering money on friends and campaign supporters that it overlooked this

A company was forced to go to China to find a partner, even though it had spent a year trying to do so in the States.

White House learned what happened, the company's CEO was invited to Washington immediately, where he explained that companies like his need development partners... not free money.

who is it?