Billionaire Boys Club Member Forum (BBCMF)

[mick]

read'ins a little; THIS Could Kill America's Shale Boom
the great American treasure hidden beneath our feet that will power our nation for the next hundred years.

It'll heat our homes, power our trucks and buses, and even provide some pretty big paydays for those who will ultimately export it to nations willing to pay small fortunes to get it.

going to pick up where coal leaves off... It will provide the perfect bridge and storage applications for renewables

Consumers and investors are beyond enthusiastic about shale gas.

bullish on natural gas

guru Bill Powers

Powers claimed the importance of shale gas has been overstated — and that the U.S. doesn't have anywhere near a 100-year supply.

A Shale Gas Folly?

Powers has a book due out next year that takes a closer look at the shale gas boom in the United States

production decline in the Haynesville and Barnett shales. Output is declining in the Woodford Shale in Oklahoma. Some of the older shale plays, such as the Fayetteville Shale, are starting to roll over. As these shale plays reverse direction and the Marcellus Shale slows down its production growth, overall U.S. production will fall.

Canadian production is falling. And Canada has historically been the main natural gas import source for the U.S. In fact, Canada has already experienced a significant decline in gas production — about 25%, since a peak in 2002 — and has dramatically slowed its exports to the United States.

Arthur Berman published a report in which he found that industry reserves had been overstated by at least 100% based on detailed review of both individual well and group decline profiles for Barnett, Fayetteville, and Haynesville Shale plays.

And just last month, energy and Peak Oil expert Chris Nelder wrote:

the decline rates of shale gas wells are steep. They vary widely from play to play, but the output of shale gas wells commonly falls by 50% to 60% or more in the first year of production.


U.S., the aggregate decline of natural gas production from both conventional and unconventional sources is now 32% per year, so 22 bcf/d of new production must be added every year to keep overall production flat, according to Canadian geologist David Hughes. That's close to the total output of U.S. shale gas, after nearly a decade of its development. It will require thousands more shale gas and tight oil wells to keep domestic gas production flat.

are they simply sounding a false alarm?