Replies to post #1091 on Fannie Mae Preferred S (FNMAS)

[44centsAKAchoccake]

Ok, I got distracted with actual work.

I'm trying to figure out Figure 2 Cumulative Treasury Draws.

This year vs. last year Cumulative Treasury Draw less dividends plus the delta between this year and last year's results

Fannie
Scenario 1 $49b $145b ($96b)
Scenario 2 $53b $150b ($97b)
Scenario 3 $94b $219b ($125)

Freddie
Scenario 1 $18b $75b ($58b)
Scenario 2 $23b $76b ($53b)
Scenario 3 $38b $92b ($54b)

So, there are going to be a lot less draws on the Treasury.

This data is through 2015. To me, its saying that taxpayers won't be completely repaid by 2015, but Freddie's number will be down to $18b.

Well, we know that this number could be taken care of by higher-than-expected reversals of loss reserves, booking the deferred taxes on the balance sheet, deriv gains, and so on.

I think this shows that taxpayers can be repaid by 2016 or 2017, twice as fast as we expected under the old regime.