What is your prognosis on the markte tomorrow? Would the Iraq missiles destroy order push your naz "target" 3/3 (#68414) leg down to 1197/1223 scenario for another two weeks? Thanks for sharing your opinions.
Zeev gave six good reasons for a possible cyclical bull starting 2nd half of the year. I wanted to add a 7th.
7. Election year cycle: Earlier Zeev post mentioned that dividend tax cut could suck bond money into market from those who don't understand stock risk. Maybe bad tax policy but should have a big impact on market during election year. Options expiration week is a decimal point in comparison to the present value to the market of even a modest dividend tax cut. Last major rally ended almost to the day of Congressional elections. Unless Iraq ends in Armageddon (in which case we can ask Zeev when the mesiah's coming) IMHO we get a cyclical bull during election year.
sometime post the middle of the year, the surprise could very well be a cyclical bull move
Coming from a different perspective (demographics), my current "best guess" scenario is nearly the same. OTOH, the more people that agree, the less likely ...
Zeev, I think your item #3 regarding Crude Oil dropping to the low $20's is unrealistic. Take a quick look at the Simmons slide presentation below. The statistics are eye-opening.
By the way, current world-wide oil consumption is about 74 million barrels per day. The impact on the world economy of a $10 change in the price of oil is $274 Trillion per year. Energy dwarfs all other industries, including military.
I urge all of you to look at these slides and learn some of the facts about the energy situation and how it is likely to affect our lives in the future.
Zeev, Would you compose a few paragraphs explaining this, the "major danger" that you point to in the post I am replying to: "our 5% plus of GDP balance of payments is the most dangerous part in the picture, that will cause decline of the dollar (I see us reaching 1.18 euro soon), and as result ascend of gold and drain of international money from US denominated assets." Tia, gl
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