Zeev, I think your item #3 regarding Crude Oil dropping to the low $20's is unrealistic. Take a quick look at the Simmons slide presentation below. The statistics are eye-opening.
By the way, current world-wide oil consumption is about 74 million barrels per day. The impact on the world economy of a $10 change in the price of oil is $274 Trillion per year. Energy dwarfs all other industries, including military.
I urge all of you to look at these slides and learn some of the facts about the energy situation and how it is likely to affect our lives in the future.