I think that if Saddam were to bail before being attacked, that it would have an extremely strong effect on the Market. I am not one of those who thinks that the underlying weakness will reassert itself, at least not anytime soon. I would see, in the scenario of Saddam leaving, Naz 2000+.
I would say that I think it is vanishingly unlikely that Saddam will be so accomodating. Much more likely that he'll go down fighting.
I've always thought, though, that he won't have to fight, because the U.S. will not attack. I think that the recent missile affair was heaven-sent for him. He'll make a big deal about destroying the missiles (which, even though they violated the range limitations, did not do so by much), and it will give all the inspections-will-work people a really big leg up over the shrubs.
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