Replies to post #77094 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[ranch hand]

Mlsoft:

Great thoughts -- I like your thinking -- and I thank you for playing along. Just for the record, I will buy OTM March tech-orientated puts Monday morning and I plan to sell them as early as Thursday's close.

Good luck.

Ranch

[jdaasoc]

I would be looking for a reasonable premium on puts.

I have found that premium on any options is proportional to probability of equity going up or down.

I can fondly or unfondly depending on how you looks at it in the fall of 1999 NDX call options had premiums of over 5% even 1 to 2 % out of the money for 3-4 weeks time frame. I can remember those call options becoming untenable in just a few days as bubble market went up 2-3% per day.

In contrast, go look at "dead" stocks like NCR & ELX now. They barely charge pennies for long calls since it isn't going anywhere.
On the other end of the spectrum, EXPE QCOM and almost any other Zeev Q stocks has got premium up the wazoo. Long call options are extremely risky because many more then 50% of the time go to zero.
Right now, I have a slew of comboed FEB short calls and short puts on SNDK RMBS CREE priced under .30 going to zero whose liability is currently 3% of my portfolio value . I think it is wild and requiring my constant attention to turn a 3% gain this week and also face the possibility or losing much more if underlying equities go up or down more then 5% in value in next 5 trading sessions.

However, I could be on flip side of those options being long option holder and stand greater then 90% chance of losing 100% of my option purchase price.

[tantal]

MI, actually I have been very successful trading qqq puts this last month, thanks to you, Zeev, aj, jda, and a few others. Thanks to you all. The trick is to trade them and trade them often. I'll often buy in thirds or fourths if I miss a top, then sell as price goes back up. I'm holding a core position (for a few days at most <G>) usually, unless I think we're at a turning point (bottom).

the thing is, these things are worth nothing in reality, so you can't hold'em. They are strictly trading vehicles. I'm getting pretty jealous of jdaasoc, but I'm not sure I have the balls to write naked calls & puts yet.

Well, my $.0000002

darryl