Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[jdaasoc]

I would be looking for a reasonable premium on puts.

I have found that premium on any options is proportional to probability of equity going up or down.

I can fondly or unfondly depending on how you looks at it in the fall of 1999 NDX call options had premiums of over 5% even 1 to 2 % out of the money for 3-4 weeks time frame. I can remember those call options becoming untenable in just a few days as bubble market went up 2-3% per day.

In contrast, go look at "dead" stocks like NCR & ELX now. They barely charge pennies for long calls since it isn't going anywhere.
On the other end of the spectrum, EXPE QCOM and almost any other Zeev Q stocks has got premium up the wazoo. Long call options are extremely risky because many more then 50% of the time go to zero.
Right now, I have a slew of comboed FEB short calls and short puts on SNDK RMBS CREE priced under .30 going to zero whose liability is currently 3% of my portfolio value . I think it is wild and requiring my constant attention to turn a 3% gain this week and also face the possibility or losing much more if underlying equities go up or down more then 5% in value in next 5 trading sessions.

However, I could be on flip side of those options being long option holder and stand greater then 90% chance of losing 100% of my option purchase price.