That is a reasonable valuation analysis. The question is, how much upside, and is that potential payoff worth the time value of money compared to other investments?
I say no because mCopax was one of the very few items in the near term(1-2 years)that could have resulted in an appreciable uptick in valuation. The damages to this premise incurred by the loss of the patent lawsuit cannot be underestimated.
I say this because one of the great things about biotechs is the irrational exuberance which can sometimes follow an approval. DNDN at 50 comes to mind off the top of my head. This could have been the case with mCopax but not so anymore, short a win on appeal. The upside will be severely capped with an approval this year and even the more likely one in 2013 because no one is going to get crazy over valuations for a product that is 2 years away from being sold in an ever changing competitive environment.
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