Replies to post #9284 on Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[Rocky3]

The question is, how much upside, and is that potential payoff worth the time value of money compared to other investments?

I think that the upside is there. AmLov lawsuit win. mCop approval and sales in 14-15. FOB identification of targets. All could be significant upside possibililities.

But I also try to look at what might go wrong. Lose AmLov lawsuit. Lov lose market share. Cop lose market share. Cop go to new formulation. Mylan approval for Cop generic. FOB set back.

Compared to other investments? We all want to make money. If you want a market return, use index funds. There has been some loss of opportunity cost in MNTA, but not much (if any) for those of us that did not pay top dollar, and/or have used time value of options for additional returns. Most of the disappointment is that we thought that we were smarter than the market and saw "true value," and have been wrong so far. I think that expecting immediate gratification is natural, but incredibly unhealthy in those of us that are really "investors." Net, net - I still own a lot MNTA and will buy more on dips.

mCopax was one of the very few items in the near term(1-2 years)that could have resulted in an appreciable uptick in valuation. The damages to this premise incurred by the loss of the patent lawsuit cannot be underestimated.

Clearly true that mCop could have been a near term driver - but wrong (IMO) that damages cannot be underestimated. Most analysts thought TEVA would win. I had never assumed that mCop would be on the market before '14 (now maybe '15). This should not change the numbers and potential significantly.

product that is 2 years away from being sold in an ever changing competitive environment.

See above. Plus one of my guiding investment principles (at least in biotech) is that things don't change that fast most of the time. Maybe I have been on the side looking forward to new things too often, but it also seems to take forever and there are usually stumbling blocks along the way. How different will the competitive environment be in 3 years? I'm willing to bet not much.

JMO.