It would really be odd if the SOC is just miraculously living much longer than many studies are currently showing.
Given the published enrollment curves and the rules for dealing with the halt the SOC arm has to be living longer than any previous trial.
I.e. any SOC arm with a median less than about 29 months would have been monsterously stat sig at the last interim (and would have halted regardless of the interim alpha scheme).
OMTY: I personally dont buy the SOC arm is living 36+ months theory
But I also do not buy into the theory that the IA2 alpha spend was something like 1E-7.
Which kind of presents a problem. The combined curve is well enough known that it should be pegged down to within a few months. So there is simply no solution which will pass all smell tests unless we have our "facts" wrong.
The only theory I would toss out (that everyone else does not agree with) is a massive data collection failure (particulaarly in less developed nations) due to the halt. Of course that could be as absurd as many other "explanations" that have been tossed out.
Regardless, that something is likely "wrong" is not good. Stim could of course work, but the blind "it must be working because it has gone this long" logic is certainy wrong.
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