OMTY: I personally dont buy the SOC arm is living 36+ months theory
But I also do not buy into the theory that the IA2 alpha spend was something like 1E-7.
Which kind of presents a problem. The combined curve is well enough known that it should be pegged down to within a few months. So there is simply no solution which will pass all smell tests unless we have our "facts" wrong.
The only theory I would toss out (that everyone else does not agree with) is a massive data collection failure (particulaarly in less developed nations) due to the halt. Of course that could be as absurd as many other "explanations" that have been tossed out.
Regardless, that something is likely "wrong" is not good. Stim could of course work, but the blind "it must be working because it has gone this long" logic is certainy wrong.