Replies to post #11688 on Market Sense and Sentiment (MKTSS)

[was Steve]

Hi Bernard,
you had asked about my outlook going forward. well the short term sure is clouded by the war talk. Might as well throw TA out the window the last few weeks. bulls and bears getting gored.

i feel the indexes are VERY close to IT lows now. Actually am hoping for a weak open (gap down would be sweet) to get long spx calls. 800-810 should be the low for spx for this one month plus selloff we have had. i think we make a run to 900 give or take 10 pts over the next month or so. it is still my opinion that if we were going to have taken out the oct lows we would have been there by now or much closer. the ndx and nas are studs relative to spx and dow. They have been our fearless leaders and they are showing relative strength.

we will take out the oct lows and probably this year, but i see more of a trading range setting up for next say six months of spx 800-910. of course i could be wildly wrong and we take a wicked dump over next few days and hit the oct lows. i think that is doubtful.
good luck
steve

[Bernard Ng]

IndexPulse TrendWatch for Thursday

Overall Market:
Long Term: Short
Medium Term: Short
Short Term: Flat

Time Frame and Trading Signals: as stated in iBox

Futures are green. FTSE is trading at HOD after a massive gap down. TNX gapped down and consolidating at LOD, a warning sign that we might fade the gapup this morning. I have the short term top sealed at 7850 today, afterall, we broke 7800, and 1 day ahead of Blix's 2nd UN report. Technically speaking, all indexes shouldn't fall a lot today, so I'm not sure if it's worthwhile to fade the gapup.

No economic number will come up during the trading day.

INDU's 5 day MACD support at -40, resistance at +30. A mild sell off today might happen, but I don't expect it to break -40.

INDU should have a trading range between 7700 and 7850.
NDX should have a trading range between 950 and 975.
SPX should have a trading range between 815 and 830.
I have both support and resistance revised down again, slightly down.
JMHO.