Although many companies continue to rack up impressive growth in China (particularly in food, consumer products, and healthcare), a few blue-chip industrial companies such as CAT, MMM, and UTX are reporting a slowing of sales growth—or even an actual year-over-year decline—in China. Some excerpts from ft.com:
Caterpillar said it had overestimated Chinese demand for construction equipment and now expected demand to decline in China this year, down from its prior forecast of growth of 5-10 per cent.
… 3M, the diversified manufacturer, also singled out Latin America. “The western hemisphere is doing well, with Latin America leading the way,” said Inge Thulin, chief executive. “Western Europe has stabilised, but at lower levels. Growth in Asia is slow because of China, Japan and electronics markets.”
…At United Technologies, the industrial conglomerate, Chinese orders fell by 15 per cent in the first quarter, with demand at its Otis elevator unit dropping by 21 per cent, but orders rose by one-fifth in Brazil, India and Russia. “The problem in emerging markets for us is really isolated to China,” said Greg Hayes, chief financial officer.
Elevator orders in UTX’s Otis division are notoriously lumpy, but the drop in sales is nevertheless an indication of some kind of slowdown in China’s construction of high-rise buildings.
Nutrition is one of ABT’s fastest-growing businesses, and the emphasis is strongly on emerging markets.
*Biocon is the Indian biotech company that is partnered with WPI (and was previously partnered with PFE) for the development of follow-on biologics (#msg-74987204).
Infant formula in emerging markets is a great business to be in, but nututionals include much more than infant formula. ABT, MJN, HNZ, Nestle, and Danone are also making good money from nutritionals for older children, adolescents and adults (e.g. #msg-80998638).
Officials in Hong Kong are treating baby milk smugglers like criminals who traffic in more illicit kinds of powder. In April, the customs police held a news conference to announce that a two-day “anti-smuggling operation” had resulted in the breaking up of three “syndicates,” the arrest of 10 people and the seizure of nearly 220 pounds of formula…
…Worries over domestic infant formula surged in 2008, when six babies died and more than 300,000 children fell ill from drinking milk products that had been tainted with melamine, a toxic chemical.
…“How can we still trust mainland-made food after reading all these horrendous stories on food safety issues?” said Tina, 28, a Guangzhou resident and the mother of a baby girl. “We are the parents of our children, and nobody can accuse us for just wanting the best for our babies. It’s not that we don’t love our country — we just dare not take the risk.”
China’s action ought to be a WTO violation, but who is realistically going to stop it?
Infant-formula is part of ABT’s nutritionals business, which is its most profitable business segment. Fortunately, ABT derives a smaller proportion of infant-formula sales from China than such competitors as Nestlé and Danone; however, investors have tainted all three companies with the same brush.
All told, this is a good buying opportunity for ABT, IMO.