Replies to post #91758 on Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[wavxmaster]

stack


"That pressure is there since wavx still needs to raise cash to survive, since they can't create enough internally."

Wave has enoght cash to get into 2006 after the last PP and warrant exercising. Revenues will start building in earnest in the third quarter and anticipation of an explosion in the 4th Q.(Per Dutton). Perhaps today Wave can't "create enouhg internally" , but over the next 4-6 months, only time will tell. The pressure has nothing to do with raising cash at the moment. In the last month Wave has traded up from the low $.80's on increasing volume. That pressure you speak of is welcome because it's "BUYING PRESSURE"!

http://139.142.147.19/StockChart_ImageOnly.dll?cus=&co=ask&i_chart=0&inm=5&ind=2&...

Wavxmaster

[go-kitesurf]

stack,

Wave is a development company. A company that is still in the main development stage of products, relationships and sales. We all don't have much to go with aside from the trend. Here's the revenue trend SO FAR:

ST Micro base revenues of $0.20 per TPM
Atmel Base revenues of $0.20 per TPM
Dell upgrade revenues of $10 per ETS soon to be $20-25
Intel ETS base licensing of $0.80 per TPM mobo
Gateway - we don't know the business model, yet
Winbond - $0.05 base revs for crypto licensing

Dell and Gateway both use Broadcom with Wave, so will Broadcom use Wave across the board? Acer, IBM, HP, Fujitsu, Sony, et al. This is emerging within the last 6 months and will continue over the next 6-9 months on chip OEMs.

Conversely, the PR/Fundamental trend can be viewed by going to Wave.com and viewing their last 12 months of PRs with partners. This will give you a small view as to what their potential might be over the next 3-4 years for getting into other business industries with TC solutions.

IDC forecasts for TPMs (in PCs/STBs only) are 25M for this year and 60M for next year and over 100M for the year after (something like that). Wave CEO SKS indicates he feels that TPMs will be on 100% of PCs deployed in 3-5 years (there are over 200M PCs deployed per year).

Add mobile deployments to this for PDAs, Cell phones, etc

Now, consider the base revenues as revenues to Wave before anything is used/turned on. Add upgrade revenues, what do *YOU* think a reasonable % of upgrades per year is? Add a trend of additional PC OEMs and chip OEMs to the mix.

[Pickle Power]

stack,

Continue your due diligence and make an informed decision. This is tougher given Wave is transitioning from a development company to a revenue producing entity. You will need to wait a couple of quarters to confirm the revenue portion. That will allow you to enter in with less risk, but you pay a higher share price for that level of comfort. If you like speculative investments, Wave defines that at this point in time. I am a long-term speculative investor just so you know the context of which I speak. Your position and intent is merely to establish context for the questions. Nothing personal.

Pickle