Replies to post #8488 on Lehman Brothers Financial SA (LEHNQ)

[ca90049]

The sub bonds are still very cheap. I believe the CTs were trading well above where they should be based on the value of the underlying bonds. Of course, the bonds are even less liquid than the CTs. You may not be able to buy one as cheap as the quotes that Linda1 provided. All of her quotes were around 0.01 or less. A bond dealer that specializes in distressed debt could probably find one for you.

[jshuey]

The allowed, that is unimpaired, debt will receive an average of 18 cents on the dollar. If 18% of the allowed debt is equal to $65 billion, per LBH filings, then the total unimpaired debt is roughly $360 billion. ($65B/.18)

Not to put too fine a point on it, but LBH would have to realize/raise and disburse to unimpaired debt holders $360 billion BEFORE we would see one red cent. $50 billion in NOLs doesn't come close to making that nut, and I doubt we will see "smart money" chasing those odds. Vegas would be a better bet.

Trust me, I would really like to see us get get something. Shoot, just 2 cents on the dollar and I'd make a killing. But I am also sanguine about the possibilities.