Lehman Brothers Financial SA (LEHNQ)

[jshuey]

The allowed, that is unimpaired, debt will receive an average of 18 cents on the dollar. If 18% of the allowed debt is equal to $65 billion, per LBH filings, then the total unimpaired debt is roughly $360 billion. ($65B/.18)

Not to put too fine a point on it, but LBH would have to realize/raise and disburse to unimpaired debt holders $360 billion BEFORE we would see one red cent. $50 billion in NOLs doesn't come close to making that nut, and I doubt we will see "smart money" chasing those odds. Vegas would be a better bet.

Trust me, I would really like to see us get get something. Shoot, just 2 cents on the dollar and I'd make a killing. But I am also sanguine about the possibilities.