Replies to post #138527 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

It does not seam odd to me. Rephrase it as "What is the present power of the trial, under the original assumptions but inserting the known events. Is this power now less than X?"

Well, I agree that was a MUCH more concise description than mine or any other description I have seen. However the reason I say it is odd is that for a ph iii it is almost always true that the HR seen at, say, the 50% interim is much more accurate than any pretrial estimate made. So re-using the originally assumed HR always give a wildly optimistic assumption of chances of success.