Replies to post #4437 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

What Big Pharma is gaining market share in China?

All of them with the possible exception of BMY, LLY, and AMGN. For reasons previously posted, my favorite Big Pharma picks are ABT, PFE, and NVS. ABT is more of a force in India than in China, however.

PKI, which is a biotech but not a Big Pharma, is doing very nicely in China (#msg-68686075).

[mrholty]

My personal belief is China is Japan in the 1920s or maybe 1950s. Just coming out of decades on insulation and growing their economy by being the cheapest producer of commodity goods. Individual factory owners are trying to get volume and market share in the short term with the plan that margins come later. However I expect that to fail as producers will simply move. The same thing happened in Japan in the 1920s, along with a property bubble that deflated. The 50s apply as Japan was originally known for cheap knock-offs which rapidly shifted due to their reverse engineering into consumer electronics (Sony, Sanyo, Panasonic) and then automotive.

I lean toward 1920s Japan but the 1950s Japan works. I don't think there is a good comparison with the US on a historical basis.

[DewDiligence]

This passage from #msg-72809764 is apropos to your question in #msg-72706278:

“China today is essentially the U.S. of the 1950s, which means there are decades to come of compounding growth as the restaurant market matures…”

In general, however, I concur with ‘mrholty’ that there is no period in US history that is comparable to what China is experiencing today.