Replies to post #137947 on Biotech Values

[oc631]

Interesting company not sure I put much value on 435 (their share) so i would need to look at the rest of their pipeline more closely.

Considering the size of the oral Hep-C market, and Medivir's tiny market capitalization, it becomes obvious that the company would do tremendously well if TMC435 is used in GT1 treatment-naive patients.

[mcbio]

Interesting company not sure I put much value on 435 (their share) so i would need to look at the rest of their pipeline more closely.

Analyst projections are for this being a $2B-$4B drug at peak sales (#msg-65207981 ) and it's in advanced stage development obviously. If we are to assume $2B and likely worst-case scenario of 5% royalty, that's still $100M/year for Medivir. And that doesn't include the revenue that Medivir will keep all to itself from any sales of TMC435 in the Nordic countries. This is a relatively small market; per the prior link, there are 115,000 chronic HCV patients in the Nordics and 3,000 receive treatment per year. But, if 3,000 Nordic HCV patients receive TMC435 annually at cost of $25,000 per patient, that's potentially $75M of annual revenue for Medivir just on Nordic sales. (Someone correct me if my numbers are way off on pricing; I googled telaprevir pricing and saw a $25K figure for telaprevir alone so presumably TMC435 may be in this range.) There are obviously plenty of caveats here, with the big one being that TMC435 may not even reach the market. But, just trying to get some idea if it does reach and is successful, what Medivir might be entitled to.