I am leaving out the Nordic countries (perhaps unfair but I see even if its just a 5% royalty on ROW much more valuable than 100% of Nordic). First they will need to build up infrastructure so it won't be as profitable. My guess is its also a much smaller market. Even if we go by the figure 3K seek treatment how likely is it that they will get 100% of that market?
Now on the ROW. This will be the third PI to research market and their is already a conflict of interest with J&J. Who knows how hard they will sell it in different territories and if Vertex regains rights and gets more competitive? Vertex is going to hit peak sales probably in Q1 or Q2 of '12. I doubt they will get more of a market than they have now.
Since they are pretty hush about the terms I also would prepare for the worst. Keep in mind it appears they owe royalties to Univeristy. I was tired last night search but thought I saw someone in the company is entitled to royalty on some products. If I find the link I'll post it. So assuming the worst these could come out of Medivir's share.
I am not saying the company may not be an interesting buy but I generally like to buy a company seeing how near a company is to profitability. I am not so sure TMC435 can get them there. If it can I think it would be just modestly profitable. I didn't look as much at other products to get a sense for how far away those may be to reaching market. It seems most of their pipeline is partnered which is good and bad. Part of the attraction to them obviously is getting another of these big partnerships/buyouts that has happened lately. I came away thinking this may have a very low probability.
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