Replies to post #4139 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[dewophile]

yes my guess is guidance is conservative after a year of misses - i just wanted to make sure i wasn't missing something
PS: i know much was due to factors out of their control eg libya, valhall, but they did miss - albeit narrowly - their 375-385k 2011 guidance as recently as the Q3 cc, so my hunch is that they are setting themselves up to beat expectations this year - which could make for a nice runup in the stock price barring unforeseen macro issues
i also think they are on the cusp of a deal on ghana, and if the economics are favorable could allay concerns re the balance sheet
all told i like the stock but haven't yet pulled the trigger

[dewophile]

hess 2012 production

i emailed IR to help me reconcile my confusion re 2012 guidance

2011 370 mboe/d
-20 due to natural field declines
-4 libya
-6 asset sales
+30 baaken
+10 llano (which was shut in Q1 2011 but shoudl be back online Q2 this year), russia, etc.

= 380, the midpoint of their guidance


valhall is guided as flat yoy due to downtime this year (althoug there will be likely be a very slight increase not factored in guidance since downtime is expected to be 3 weeks and was shut in for 2 months in 2011)