Look at the Wall Street Crash - massive up run's in the roaring 1920's, large declines in the 30's.
Gold - large up run's to 1980, subsequent -7% real annualised returns for the next 20 years to 2000
Japan - large up run's in stocks to 1990, subsequent -7% real annualised returns for the next 20+ years.
Long term treasury's, low 2.67% yields in 1954. High yield of 14.7% in 1981. Between 1964 and 1981 inclusive LTT's lost -7% real annualised.
Buy into any asset that has a sizeable up-run and it can endure subsequent prolonged negative real rates. Perhaps made worse by drawing an income on top of those real declines.
Stocks and cash are the more recent (as in decade long timing) Value plays, whilst LTT and Gold are the recent Momentum plays. With momentum you need to have a tight rein on downside loss avoidance (stop loss).
Buy and holders buying into either LTT or gold at more recent price levels, with no intent to sell if prices start downwards, could be buying into prolonged relatively poor performance.
Waiting for a yield curve inversion for LTT's is a good idea Toofuzzy for Value/buy-and-hold. Otherwise gold and LTT's are perhaps better played with a stop loss based approach at more recent levels (they could continue on up, but could equally turn around to bite you hard).
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