Replies to post #133463 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Now if NKTR-118 is intended for regular use by those taking opioids (who are prone to constipation) I think that is a bigger opportunity then use to induce a bowl movement.

I think either way both drugs are addressing a large market. I am pretty sure that Salix previously disclosed during one of their CCs after they licensed Relistor rights that they believed that Relistor has the chance to be a >$1B/year drug assuming that the subQ version gets expanded approval in chronic, non-cancer patients and, most importantly, that the oral version also gets approved in this patient population. I searched through the archives here and have yet to find it but I seem to recall that. Don't hold me to it until and unless I find it. ; ) Doesn't mean it will happen of course but Salix seems to have a lot of confidence in Relistor and that seems to be borne out in the terms PGNX received on the deal ($60M up-front and 15-19% royalties on U.S. sales, among other terms). SLXP is no big pharma so that type of up-front is more consequential to a company of their size than it would be to a big pharma.

[vinmantoo]

gmm,

You are still missing the point. Both drugs are designed to relieve constipation that is derived from taking opiates. Not everyone taking opiates gets constipation. You are postulating that people would prefer or that it is better for people to take a drug that don't need or might not need, rather than only taking the drug if they have a problem with constipation.

You can spin it any way you like, but the NKTR approach is to give drugs to all people who take opiates rather than only those with OIC. While I am sure NKTR would prefer increased usage, I doubt very much that insurance companies like the idea of paying for a drug that patients don't or might not need rather than waiting for a need to arise.