This handout photo, taken in 2009, provided by University of Alaska, Fairbanks, shows research assistant professor Katey Walter Anthony igniting trapped methane from under the ice in a pond on the Fairbanks campus. Massive amounts of greenhouse gases trapped below thawing permafrost will likely vent into the air over the next several decades, accelerating and amplifying global warming, scientists warn. (AP Photo/Todd Paris, University of Alaska, Fairbanks)
By SETH BORENSTEIN AP Science Writer WASHINGTON November 30, 2011 (AP)
Massive amounts of greenhouse gases trapped below thawing permafrost will likely seep into the air over the next several decades, accelerating and amplifying global warming, scientists warn.
Those heat-trapping gases under the frozen Arctic ground may be a bigger factor in global warming than the cutting down of forests, and a scenario that climate scientists hadn't quite accounted for, according to a group of permafrost experts. The gases won't contribute as much as pollution from power plants, cars, trucks and planes, though.
The permafrost scientists predict that over the next three decades a total of about 45 billion metric tons of carbon from methane and carbon dioxide will seep into the atmosphere when permafrost thaws during summers. That's about the same amount of heat-trapping gas the world spews during five years of burning coal, gas and other fossil fuels
And the picture is even more alarming for the end of the century. The scientists calculate that about than 300 billion metric tons of carbon will belch from the thawing Earth from now until 2100.
Adding in that gas means that warming would happen "20 to 30 percent faster than from fossil fuel emissions alone," said Edward Schuur of the University of Florida. "You are significantly speeding things up by releasing this carbon."
Usually the first few to several inches of permafrost thaw in the summer, but scientists are now looking at up to 10 feet of soft unfrozen ground because of warmer temperatures, he said. The gases come from decaying plants that have been stuck below frozen ground for millennia.
"The survey provides an important warning that global climate warming is likely to be worse than expected," said Jay Zwally, a NASA polar scientist who wasn't part of the study. "Arctic permafrost has been like a wild card."
When the Nobel Prize-winning panel of climate scientists issued its last full report in 2007, it didn't even factor in trapped methane and carbon dioxide from beneath the permafrost. Diplomats are meeting this week in South Africa to find ways of curbing human-made climate change.
Schuur and others said increasing amounts of greenhouse gas are seeping out of permafrost each year. Some is methane, which is 25 times stronger than carbon dioxide in trapping heat.
In a recent video, University of Alaska Fairbanks professor Katey Walter Anthony, a study co-author, is shown setting leaking methane gas on fire with flames shooting far above her head.
"Places like that are all around," Anthony said in a phone interview. "We're tapping into old carbon that has been locked up in the ground for 30,000 to 40,000 years."
That triggers what Anthony and other scientists call a feedback cycle. The world warms, mostly because of human-made greenhouse gases. That thaws permafrost, releasing more natural greenhouse gas, augmenting the warming.
There are lots of unknowns and a large margin of error because this is a relatively new issue with limited data available, the scientists acknowledge.
"It's very much a seat-of-the-pants expert assessment," said Stanford University's Chris Field, who wasn't involved in the new report.
The World Meteorological Organization this week said the worst of the warming in 2011 was in the northern areas — where there is permafrost — and especially Russia. Since 1970, the Arctic has warmed at a rate twice as fast as the rest of the globe.
The thawing permafrost also causes trees to lean — scientists call them "drunken trees" — and roads to buckle. Study co-author F. Stuart Chapin III said when he first moved to Fairbanks the road from his house to the University of Alaska had to be resurfaced once a decade.
"Now it gets resurfaced every year due to thawing permafrost," Chapin said.
Permafrost Thaw May Emit More Than Deforestation, Study Says
By Alex Morales - Nov 30, 2011 12:00 PM CT
Emissions from thawing permafrost may contribute more to global warming than deforestation this century, according to a commentary in the journal Nature.
Arctic warming of 7.5 degrees Celsius (13.5 degrees Fahrenheit) this century may unlock the equivalent of 380 billion tons of carbon dioxide as soils thaw, allowing carbon to escape as CO2 and methane, University of Florida and University of Alaska biologists wrote today in Nature. Two degrees of warming would release a third of that, they said.
“We calculate that permafrost thaw will release the same order of magnitude of carbon as deforestation if current rates of deforestation continue,” the researchers said. “Because these emissions include significant quantities of methane, the overall effect on climate could be 2.5 times larger.”
The Arctic is an important harbinger of climate change because the United Nations calculates it’s warming at almost twice the average rate for the planet. The study adds to pressure on United Nations climate treaty negotiators from more than 190 countries attending two weeks of talks in Durban, South Africa that began Nov. 28.
The International Energy Agency this month said with current energy policies worldwide, the global average temperature may rise by more than 3.5 degrees. With the Arctic warming faster than the rest of the world, that could imply a 7- degree rise in the region. The Arctic warming has led to record melting of sea ice in recent years and the retreat of glaciers in Greenland.
Warming Scenarios
The researchers based their commentary on a survey of 41 permafrost scientists from around the world, who were asked to calculate what percentage of the surface permafrost is likely to thaw, how much carbon will be released, and how much of that carbon will be methane over different time frames and for four different warming scenarios.
“Our survey outlines the additional risk to society caused by thawing of the frozen north, and underscores the urgent need to reduce atmospheric emissions from fossil-fuel use and deforestation,” the scientists said. “This will help to keep permafrost carbon frozen in the ground.”
Researchers at the Permafrost Carbon Research Network also contributed to the commentary piece.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Morales in Durban, South Africa via amorales2@bloomberg.net. To contact the editor responsible for this story: Reed Landberg via landberg@bloomberg.net.
The distinctive, planet-encircling flows of the Southern Ocean have played a role in moderating global warming, but change is at hand with the water heating up, getting less salty, storing more carbon, and growing more acidic. These changes could lead to rises in sea levels, changing weather patterns, and the inability of marine life to form shells, skeletons, and reefs.
Below is an interview with report co-author Dr Steve Rintoul, Oceans Program Leader at the ACE CRC, followed by analysis of the report from Professor Carlos Duarte, Director of the Oceans Institute at the University of Western Australia.
Report author Dr Steve Rintoul, Oceans Program Leader, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre
The oceans as a whole are really important for climate because they can absorb huge amounts of heat and carbon dioxide. In a sense, when we talk about global warming that’s happening today, we’re really talking about ocean warming.
More than 90 per cent of the extra heat energy that’s absorbed by the Earth has gone into warming up the oceans, so if we want to track climate change we need to track the oceans. Similarly for carbon dioxide the oceans have absorbed about 30 per cent of the carbon dioxide we have emitted into the atmosphere, so that’s acted to slow the rate at which climate would have otherwise changed – it’s helped to mitigate the effects of climate change.
The Southern Ocean has a particulary important role in storage of both heat and carbon. About half of the extra heat energy that’s been stored by the Earth has entered the oceans through the Southern Ocean and about 40 per cent of the carbon dioxide that’s stored in the oceans enters though the Southern Ocean. Yet, the Southern Ocean represents only about 20 per cent of the surface area of the oceans. So it’s a factor of two for carbon and two-and-half for heat more effective than you might have expected for the area of the Southern Ocean in terms of storing heat and carbon.
The reason it can do that is because of a unique pattern of ocean currents. You can think of the Southern ocean as a window to the deep oceans [. It’s the only place where deep waters rise up and reach the sea surface, and it’s one of the few places where large amounts of water sink from the surface down into the interior of the ocean. It’s because of those rising and sinking motions that the Southern Ocean can store lots of heat and carbon.
There are two sets of ocean currents. The largest current in the world-ocean circles around Antarctica from west to east, and that extends from the sea surface right down to the sea floor and into the ocean basin. At the same time this water is whipping around Antarctica, there’s a slower but important set of flows that is moving towards Antarctica and rising towards the surface, or flowing away from Antarctica and sinking down away from the surface into the deeper ocean; we call that the overturning circulation. A lot of the critical climate aspects of the Southern Ocean have to do with the overturning circulation – how it works now and how it might change in the future. Given that the ocean plays an important role in today’s climate, if the Southern Ocean were to change that might have widespread consequences for climate and not just in the Southern ocean region.
Recent data shows that the Southern Ocean is changing now: it’s warming and it’s becoming less salty, and the amount of carbon dioxide that’s stored in the Southern Ocean is increasing – there’s more carbon accumulating in the Southern Ocean. Each of those three changes tell us something about how the system works and also acts as an indicator of what we might expect to happen in the future.
One of the effects of warming on the Southern Ocean is that it tends to increase the rate at which the ice that flows off Antarctica enters the sea and melts. The warmer the ocean the faster the ice around the edge of Antarctica melts. If the ice that’s already floating around Antartica melts it doesn’t make any difference to sea-level-rises directly, just like melting ice cubes in a drink don’t cause the drink to overflow the cup. But what happens when you thin or break up the ice that’s floating around the edge of Antarctica is that more ice flows off the continent and into the ocean, and that does increase sea-level rise. So the largest single uncertainty in estimating the future range of sea level rise is the question of what’s going to happen to the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland. And what happens to the Antarctic ice sheets is intimately tied up with the rate of warming of the Southern Ocean.
We’ve also observed the freshening of the Southern Ocean; it’s becoming less salty. This tells us two things. The fact that the surface waters are getting fresher tells us that there’s more rainfall than there used to be. At these latitudes we expect there to be more rainfall as the Earth warms up, and there to be less rainfall in the drier zones further north in the subtropics. That’s because warm air holds more moisture in, so as the Earth warms up we expect the whole water cycle on Earth to become more vigorous – more evaporation in the evaporative zones and more rainfall in wetter areas. So the Southern Ocean provides one of the clues but that’s already happening now.
We also see the very deepest layers around Antarctica becoming fresher. It’s an indication that some of the extra melting of ice around the edge of Antarctica is flowing into the sea and getting carried down to the deep ocean by the ocean currents.
The third change is the carbon concentration. What’s important about this is that the ocean’s picking up of carbon dioxide is in a sense a good thing for us – it soaks up CO2, and that makes the climate change less rapidly than it would otherwise. But it has another consequence and that is in changing the chemistry of the ocean. It makes the ocean more acidic and makes it harder for organisms to form shells or skeletons or reefs out of calcium carbonate.
As we put more carbon dioxide into the Southern Ocean eventually we’ll cross a threshold where the water will actually become corrosive to reefs and shells made out of calcium carbonate. The point at which you cross that threshold depends on the temperature of the water, and it will be crossed first in the cold waters of the polar regions, both north and south.
We’ve realised that that threshold will be crossed earlier than we thought, at least at some times of the year, and those corrosive conditions will exist in winter as soon as 2030 – only two decades from now. And this will happen at much lower levels of carbon dioxide: at levels of only about 450 parts per million. We used to think that threshold wouldn’t be crossed until we got to about 550 parts per million.
ACE CRC
Professor Carlos Duarte, Director of the Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia
The report, “Climate change and the Southern Ocean”, provides an updated assessment of the patterns of change in ocean circulation, heat, and CO2 inventories in the Southern Ocean in an attempt to assess impacts of climate change on this region of the oceans.
The data presented and summarized shows that the Southern Ocean is the region of the world’s oceans that less clearly displays a signal of climate change with surface waters actually cooling in some areas, and is also the area of the oceans that has trapped less anthropogenic carbon in the world’s oceans. Hence, out of all regions of the ocean, the Southern Ocean is that where evidence for climate change impacts is, as yet smaller.
The report contains elements of ambiguity, because it first refers to the Oceans of the Southern Hemisphere, to then focus to Southern Ocean, which the authors extend to encompass the waters south of 30 degrees South, whereas the Southern Ocean is typically defined as the waters south of [latitude] 40 degrees South or even south of 50 degrees South. Hence, the report really mixes up impacts in the Southern Ocean with those of the temperate waters of the South Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans, which interact with, but are not part of, the Southern Ocean.
While the report provides a thorough account of changes in circulation and, to a lesses extent, chemistry, it is largely lacking of information on documented and future changes in the biology of the Southern Ocean, where impacts of climate change compound with those derived by intense hunting of whales along the 20th Century and fisheries of krill.
When focusing on the Southern Ocean per se, it is clear that the impacts of climate change on the Southern Ocean have been thus far minor, with those derived from the decline in ozone possibly being far greater than those derived from increased green-house gases.
However, as the report outlines the Southern Ocean plays a key role in connecting the circulation in all oceans so that resolving the future behavior and changes of the Southern Ocean is fundamental to predict planetary-scale changes in the oceans. Detecting and predicting possible changes in the physics, chemistry and biology of the Southern Ocean is, therefore, a task of global significance. The fate of the extensive ice sheets of the Southern Ocean is also of global significance in determining the rates of sea level rise.
Australia is poised to play a key role in the investigation of the Southern Ocean, but cannot do this alone, and should form an alliance with strong oceanographic institutions in New Zealand, South African and Chile (prominently Concepción University), as well as other countries, such as Germany, US, France and, recently, China, with a strong research effort in the Southern ocean.
I also believe that the authors are making an understatement when they consider Australian infrastructure for blue-water oceanography, particularly research vessels, to be modest. Provided the large ocean areas within Australia’s Exclusive Economic Zone and its important interests in the Southern Ocean, Indian Ocean, and Pacific Ocean or when comparing Australia to any other country it will like to compare with, the capacities for blue water oceanography of Australia are simply dwarf, and at the level of those of Belgium, with its less than 100 kilometres of coastline.
If Australia is to rise to a leading role in the oceanography of the Southern Ocean it needs to address the very severe deficiency in research infrastructure to operate offshore in the ocean. Here is an opportunity to enhance the role of Australia in the region.
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