Oh, I sure hope that that high of a success isn't baked in.. Otherwise, it might be a house of pain. I think most of the street doesn't give it that good of odds.
Another factor baked into the stock price is additional dilution to fund 2012 Pona launch and front line registration trial; the amount of which is dependent on the asian partnership.
Peter = With all due respect, I think that the full value of Ponatanib's approval is probably not prices into Ariad at a pps of 10.75-11.00.
Once clinicians have the option of using the drug as a first or second line after the approval for use with T315i patients, it is hard to believe that they won't be choosing Ponatnib earlier on with the result that revenues for this drug will go up markedly. Since many of the CML luminaries have already lauded this drug, how far behind can its broader adoption really be.
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