Replies to post #14249 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[biomaven0]

I'm being conservative here - we haven't seen the long-term safety data yet, and CML treatment tends to be fairly sticky. Yes, pona has the potential to be a >$1b drug in several years, but that is quite a while off yet. Meantime, what we know right now is that the drug will be approved and used for 3rd line.

Peter

[BTH]

I really hope you understand that at 11.00 per share, Ariad is currently valued around $1.5 billion (BILLION).

That's not chump change.

[NP1986]

Peter = With all due respect, I think that the full value of Ponatanib's approval is probably not prices into Ariad at a pps of 10.75-11.00.

I believe approval based on PACE is pretty much baked in. PACE will help ponatinib lock on to the 3rd line and T315I populations, but these are fairly small. I believe that the initial market opportunity for ponatinib in 2nd gen TKI failures will be somewhat limited by the fact that the alternate 2nd gen TKI will work for many of these patients and physicians may be reluctant to use a newer drug until they have more experience with it.

However, opportunities for broader use in the 2nd line setting and/or eventual use as front-line therapy represent significant upside for ARIA. I don't believe this is baked in yet because it is not a near-term catalyst (we shouldn't expect a first line indication until at least 2014, although we may have topline results in 2013).